Democrats’ Senate Chances Depend on These Five States

Not long ago, the possibility of the Democratic Party taking back the Senate in 2026 seemed laughable. But with President Donald Trump’s approval numbers sinking over the war in Iran and economic stressors impacting numerous Americans, the Democrats’ path to the upper chamber appears to be widening. A lot has to go right, however, and one error could collapse their chances. They need to retain their current seats and net four. Yesterday, in part one of our two-part series on Senate races to watch, we discussed the toss-ups; today, we look at five states that lean red or blue but are within reach for the opposing party and ripe for upsets.

A Southern Senate Battle, With Knives Out

In Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, after defeating four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a primary runoff last month, faces Democrat James Talarico, a state representative whom some Republicans have dubbed “James Tala-freako” and “low-T Talarico.” Following Paxton’s win against the incumbent, the Center for Politics moved the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” Democrats no doubt see Paxton as an easier opponent. He’s faced impeachment charges, was acquitted, and is in the middle of a divorce. His connection to Donald Trump and hardline MAGA positions will probably be where Talarico focuses much of his campaign. Paxton, on the other hand, will likely continue emasculating Talarico in an effort to paint him as too soft for Texas.

The verbal jabs between these two have ostensibly overshadowed their platforms, swapping policy discussions for character assassinations. In fact, the discourse has escalated so much that Talarico appears to be increasing his meat consumption, posting videos of himself eating BBQ to deflect rumors that he’s a vegan.

The three most recent polls show the two candidates neck and neck, but there’s a wild card in this race: Ted Brown, a retired insurance claims adjuster who is the Libertarian Party’s Texas nominee for the Senate. He ran in 2024 and received 2.4% of the vote, yet Senator Ted Cruz still went on to beat his challenger, Colin Allred. However, if the race between Talarico and Paxton is close, and if Brown gains similar support as in 2024, he could tilt the whole thing over.

Blue Edge

Next is a Senate seat in Georgia currently held by Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, whom the president recently attacked in a social media post, calling him “a pathetic failed Dumocrat Senator.” Ossoff will face Rep. Mike Collins, a “true Friend, Fighter, and WARRIOR,” Trump wrote. The president also said he plans to campaign for Collins ahead of the November election, probably because Georgia is a key pickup opportunity for Republicans, and they know it won’t be easy.

Ossoff is a first-term senator, but his campaign has momentum and a lot of cash. It reportedly raised more than $1 million in the 24 hours after Collins clinched the Republican nomination, all from online donors who gave an average of $38 apiece. Altogether, his campaign has supposedly brought in more than $32 million, according to FEC filings. Ossoff has also held arena-sized rallies while delivering sharp-edged attacks against Collins and Trump. The senator’s team has turned his speeches into social-media-friendly clips that have gone viral, raising suspicions that he is thinking about running for president in 2028.

In a statement released after Collins secured the nomination, Ossoff called his opponent an “extremist” and tied him to Trump’s trade policies and last year’s tax legislation. Collins later described the incumbent as an “out-of-touch far-left liberal.” Ossoff may have the last laugh, though. He has led in most polls by nearly double digits since February. Still, this race is expected to be one of the most competitive Senate contests in the country and could play a major role in determining the balance of power in Washington.

Topsy-Turvy

North Carolina is the GOP Senate seat Democrats are most likely to flip. Even though the state consistently votes Republican for president, it often elects Democrats in other statewide races. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper faces former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, who has struggled to break 40% support in recent polls. Meanwhile, Cooper has held a lead in the high single digits, often garnering around 50% support.

Lack of name recognition might be making Whatley’s campaign a bit more challenging, and his support for Trump’s “anti-weaponization” fund probably hasn’t done him any favors. Even with Trump’s endorsement, Whatley may have a difficult time outshining the well-funded and well-known two-term governor. However, Democrats have often come close in high-profile races in North Carolina without crossing the finish line. This may end up as a razor-thin race by Election Day, one that could make or break the GOP’s chances of keeping control of the upper chamber.

Red Tilt

In Iowa, state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian, will face Rep. Ashley Hinson in a November showdown to replace retiring GOP Sen. Joni Ernst. After Turek secured the Democratic Party’s nomination with nearly 63% of the vote, the Cook Political Report moved the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” Hinson, backed by Trump and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, won the Republican primary with nearly 74% of the vote.

Despite Iowa’s red tilt, Turek may have a shot. He flipped a GOP-held Iowa House seat in 2022, yet the state hasn’t elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 2008. So Hinson may have an early advantage. Plus, as a former TV news anchor who’s in her third term representing Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, she’s well-known and running in a state that President Trump carried by 13 points in 2024. She also has a sizable fundraising advantage, with the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund planning to spend $29 million on advertisements.

Before the primary, polls showed Hinson ahead by low single digits. The newest survey, the only one conducted after the primary so far, shows the two candidates tied. Iowa might be a reach for Democrats, but it’s not entirely off the map, and if Iowans are as hurt by tariffs and economic woes as Democrats claim, Hinson may have a tough fight ahead.

Split Electorate

It’s also worth mentioning New Hampshire, even though its primary isn’t until September. On the Republican side, former Senator John E. Sununu is looking to reclaim the seat he lost to Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in 2008. With Trump’s endorsement, Sununu has an advantage going in; plus, he’s the brother and son of two former governors, Chris Sununu and John H. Sununu, respectively. They make up one of the state’s most famous political dynasties.

Nothing is set in stone, of course, and the former lawmaker still has a bruising primary to get through against Scott Brown, who represented Massachusetts in the Senate from 2010 to 2013. Both men argue that their records in Washington prove they’re the person for the job. Whoever wins will go head-to-head with Rep. Chris Pappas, the presumptive Democratic nominee, who started May with $4.2 million in the bank, nearly double Sununu’s haul so far, according to FEC filings.

Though New Hampshire has had a Republican in the governor’s mansion for nearly a decade, its voters often elect Democrats to statewide offices and the presidency. Trump narrowly lost the state by nearly 3 points in 2024. Sununu is by far the favorite for the Republican nomination, and he leads in the most recent poll by 46%. However, no public surveys for the GOP primary have been released since mid-May. In an April poll for the general election, the last one conducted, Pappas has a 14% lead over Brown and 7% over Sununu.

Final Words

Since midterms are often a referendum on the party in power, a nationwide blue wave is possible. The conditions for an upset year are forming: If economic pressure and foreign policy fallout continue to erode support for the president, the tide could turn and sweep away the GOP’s Senate majority. These states may offer openings, but not necessarily victories, and any advantages Democrats have at the moment could be gone by November.