Christmas trees and tariffs: Are artificial or natural trees a better deal

About 85% of the 20 million or so Christmas trees being sold in the U.S. annually are artificial, and of those, about 90% are made in China. So any such tariffs threatened to send Christmas tree prices much higher in a year in which American consumers have shown themselves to be cautious and frugal.

Initially, some distributors temporarily halted production in China, while others scrambled to move production to other countries as they waited to see whether the threatened tariff rates would fall. (They have, back down to a more manageable 20%.) The upshot, after those months of uncertainty, has been upward pressure of about 10% to 15% on what Americans are shelling out this year for their Christmas trees, according to leaders in the industry. 

“We have raised prices and I think most companies have raised prices,” National Tree Co CEO Chris Butler told Fortune. 

At the same time, Butler said, expectations that customers are going to be more scarce this year may create opportunities for some deals. The average owner of an artificial tree gets a new one every five years, and higher prices could convince some to hold out for one more year. Some 80% of trees are sold after Nov. 1. And the bulk of artificial trees are in the $100 to $300 range, so those tariffs are translating into real dollars in what is already a stressful holiday season for those dealing with job losses or market volatility.

“We’re seeing a bit of softness early in the season for Christmas trees, and we may have to give back some of those price increases and promotions to get back to where we need to be,” says Butler, whose company sells about a million trees a year and is part of a group of 10 larger distributors that act as a de facto trade organization for artificial trees. 

Even before the Trump tariffs, Butler said, National Tree had already been working to diversify its supplier base to reduce dependence on China, turning to factories in Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand. Butler says that roughly 50% of his production is now outside China, giving him some flexibility. And large sellers like Walmart and Home Depot have already placed some orders for 2026.

Butler said that his Christmas tree group has been trying to explain to lawmakers that the tariff uncertainty could cause chaos in the 2025 Christmas season and also next year’s—meeting with the U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, with faith-based organizations at the White House, and with five senators. “We’re trying to work with the administration to make Christmas affordable,” says Butler. 

As for the natural Christmas tree market, so far it appears to be largely unaffected from the trade wars. It consists primarily of American trees, with the bulk of imports coming from Canada. Trees from Canada are exempt from tariffs under an agreement that covers the majority of trade between the two countries. 

Tree farmers say business is brisk as usual, says Rick Dungey, executive director of the National Christmas Tree Association, which represents natural tree sellers in the U.S. Even in tough or uncertain economic times, few people are going to sacrifice the tradition of getting a tree, he said.

“It’s about memories,” said Dungey. “It’s about feelings. And it’s once a year, right?”