On the financial markets, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) was one of the direct casualties of the war with Iran. The dependence of semiconductor companies on global supply chains, together with high pricing of these stocks and investor flight from risk assets in wartime, led to increased sensitivity in the sector to the geopolitical situation. In March, the index fell by more than 16%. But almost overnight the trend reversed. Last week, as US President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran ran out, the market began to price in an end to the war, and the SOX jumped, rising almost 25% for April to date.
Since then, the negotiations between the US and Iran have collapsed, but Oppenheimer Israel senior analyst Sergey Vastchenok believes that the market will continue to price in no return to war. “The market is pricing that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened, that there will be some kind of settlement in which each side will say ‘I won’, and the disruptions that were feared would adversely affect the semiconductor market won’t be so serious,” he says.
The ceasefire and the reduced risk lead to expectations of global growth, he says, which should continue to support the semiconductor market. At the same time, renewed investment by Anthropic in AI is positive for the semiconductor market, because it underlines the need for further investment in advanced chips, such as those of Nvidia.
Vastchenok adds that last week Taiwanese semiconductor giant TSMC released strong monthly figures, and it is due to publish quarterly financials this week, as is Dutch semiconductor equipment company ASML. He says that good results from the two companies will support continuation of the positive sentiment on the semiconductor market.
Last week, several semiconductor stocks on Wall Street recorded double-digit rises. SanDisk, for example, rose 21.4%; Lam Research rose 20.7%; Broadcom rose 18.1%; and AMD rose 12.7%. Israel’s representatives in the industry also strengthened. Semiconductor inspection equipment companies Nova and Camtek rose 12.2% and 10.7% respectively. Analog chip producer Tower Semiconductor has been exceptional in the sector, as the war does not appear to have disturbed it at all. Since the war began, it has become one of the outstanding stocks on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. In the first weeks of the war, it reached an all-time peak. It has since fallen slightly, and then climbed back again with the announcement of the ceasefire. Altogether, so far this year, it has added 73% to its value.
The positive sentiment in the semiconductor sector has changed the rankings of Israeli companies traded in New York. Within the past few weeks, Tower Semiconductor and Nova have overtaken cybersecurity company Check Point to become the third and fourth largest Israeli companies on Wall Street in market cap terms (after defense company Elbit Systems and pharmaceuticals company Teva).
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Values disconnected from reality
Investment bank Cantor published a comprehensive review of the semiconductor market last week, after the announcement of the ceasefire. The bank’s semiconductors analyst CJ Muse writes that the main question is when investors will move to a “Risk On” position on semiconductor stocks (i.e., a position in which they are confident in the ability of the companies to grow and take greater risks with the aim of obtaining higher returns). With the ceasefire in Iran and after a fall of 15% in the Semiconductor Index, “our sense the time is NOW or SOON,” he writes.
Muse thinks that the main beneficiaries of the restoration of momentum will be memory companies, such as SanDisk, Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate, and semiconductor equipment companies (among which, as mentioned, are Israeli companies Nova and Camtek). Muse estimates that after that the momentum will reach computing power companies such as Nvidia and Broadcom, where, he says, “the demand backdrop is as robust as ever and valuations today are frankly disconnected vs reality… valuations at both NVDA and AVGO are frankly just too inexpensive to ignore here.” On the other hand, he recommends avoiding semiconductor stocks with consumer exposure.
Muse’s thesis about the return of the momentum is explained by several main trends, among them the fact that demand for advanced chips considerably exceeds supply, creating significant upside. Another trend is a shortage of supply of memory, and semiconductor equipment becoming a bottleneck.
Jefferies also takes a positive stance on the industry. Analyst Blayne Curtis points to Broadcom’s long-term contract with Google announced last week, which he says should allay fears in the sector. “AI names in our coverage have started to rally, and we see plenty of room to run with heavily discounted valuations and earnings upside for several names,” Curtis writes, singling out Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, AMD, and Intel.
Published by Globes, Israel business news – en.globes.co.il – on April 13, 2026.
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