Big Short investor Michael Burry says Trump’s Iran war decisions are being driven by something other than foreign policy

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Gas prices and your retirement account shouldn’t feel like they’re reacting to the same headline, but lately they are.

Renowned former hedge fund investor Michael Burry argues the stock market isn’t just responding to the U.S. war with Iran, but it may also be shaping how quickly the U.S. tries to wrap it up.

Burry, the “Big Short” investor famous for predicting and profiting from the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, says President Donald Trump’s handling of the conflict in Iran is being shaped by his allergy to market dips.

In a blunt Substack post from March 21 (1), Burry called the stock market “Trump’s kryptonite,” writing that his Iran strategy is “just get out before the market crashes too much. It’s a shame that Americans died for this.”

The reason Burry’s claim matters to everyday households is simple: When energy shocks mingle with persistent inflation and higher interest rates, consumer budgets tighten and retirement portfolios get shakier at the same time.

Consumers are feeling the familiar jolt of rising gas prices — one of the quickest ways a distant conflict can hit home. Threats to oil shipping tend to lift crude prices, which lifts gasoline costs, which in turn can keep inflation hotter for longer.

That ripple effect is already showing up in oil markets. Brent crude, which is the global benchmark for oil prices, surged above $100 per barrel during the conflict, before being pushed back down below $92 due to the announcement of a two-week ceasefire — then briefly surging once more above $100 on April 13 after peace talks broke down (2).

Either way, those prices are well above the $67 level recorded on Feb. 27, before the war began. With Trump now blockading the Strait of Hormuz (3), as well as the damaged infrastructure and proposed transit fees for passing ships, oil prices could stay elevated in the near term.

In a CNBC interview (4), Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President and CEO Austan Goolsbee warned, “What makes this a fraught but intense moment is nobody can tell us what is going to happen on the ground in the conflict in the Middle East, and how long that lasts.”

Consumer and investor anxiety is the backdrop for Burry’s provocative claim that market pain may be an invisible hand on foreign policy. If markets punish uncertainty, leaders who treat markets as a scoreboard may have an incentive to reduce that uncertainty, fast.

In fact, reports about large, well-timed trades placed just before Trump delayed or softened threatened strikes have intensified scrutiny of the conflict (5), but the White House has dismissed suggestions of coordination or market-driven war management.

But there’s little denying that markets have been unusually jumpy. The S&P 500 first breached 7,000 on Jan. 28, a milestone widely tied to optimism around AI and expectations for easier monetary policy (6). By March 30, it closed at 6,343.72, its lowest close in 2026 (7).

Oil has been even more dramatic since the start of the Iran conflict, rising and falling daily on the latest headlines about oil shipping lanes — including same-day swings that show how traders are repricing the conflict seemingly minute by minute.

Read More: Robert Kiyosaki warned of a ‘Greater Depression’ — with millions of Americans going poor. Was he right?

Burry’s critique may resonate because it evokes how President Trump frequently talks about success.

In his State of the Union speech on Feb. 24 (8), Trump boasted of dozens of stock market record highs and told Americans that “401(k)s and retirement accounts for the millions and the millions of Americans, they’re all gaining. Everybody is up, way up.”

It’s an explicit connection between household well-being and market performance — suggesting it’s not a stretch to think market drops can translate into political pressure.

It’s also notable that the critique is coming from Burry himself, a contrarian whose reputation rests on seeing incentives and market fragilities before others. Known as the “Big Short” investor, Burry made hundreds of millions of dollars for himself and investors by betting against the housing market ahead of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis (9).

For consumers, “war risk” often shows up as higher daily expenses and more volatile impacts on their savings. AAA put the national average gas price at $3.98 as of March 25 (10).

Elsewhere, a Reuters/Ipsos poll (11) found that 55% of Americans said their household finances had been hit at least “somewhat” by rising gas prices, and 87% expected prices to rise further over the next month because of the conflict.

So, how can you weather the war’s impacts on your finances?

Build a little cushion — or emergency fund — for gas and groceries so you’re not forced onto a card if prices spike again.

For example, a high-yield account like a Wealthfront Cash Account can be a great place to grow your uninvested cash, offering both competitive interest rates and easy access to your money when you need it.

A Wealthfront Cash Account currently offers a base APY of 3.30% through program banks, and new clients can get an extra 0.75% boost during their first three months on up to $150,000 for a total variable APY of 4.05%.

That’s ten times the national deposit savings rate, according to the FDIC’s March report.

Additionally, Wealthfront is offering new clients who enable direct deposit ($1,000/mo minimum) to their Cash Account and open and fund a new investment account an additional 0.25% APY increase with no expiration date or balance limit, meaning your APY could be as high as 4.30%.

With no minimum balances or account fees, as well as 24/7 withdrawals and free domestic wire transfers, your funds remain accessible at all times. Plus, you get access to up to $8M FDIC Insurance eligibility through program banks.

Market drops can feel scary, but selling in the heat of the moment often locks in losses.

History shows rebounds can happen fast. For instance, after Trump announced a ceasefire to the ongoing conflict in Iran, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.5%, while the S&P 500 rose 2.6% — proof that markets can turn fast (12).

Volatility is part of the game.

“American business will do fine over time. And stocks will do well just as certainly, since their fate is tied to business performance,” famed investor Warren Buffett wrote in Berkshire Hathaway’s 2013 shareholder letter (13). “Periodic setbacks will occur, yes, but investors and managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor.”

In other words, investing consistently is more prudent than trying to time the markets. Rather than waiting for the right time to invest, consider automating the process by investing small amounts regularly.

For instance, investing just $30 each week could add up to over $93,000 in 20 years, assuming it compounds at 10% annually (14).

If those kinds of returns are too tempting to pass up, platforms like Acorns allow you to turn your spare change from everyday purchases into an investment opportunity.

All you have to do is link your cards, and Acorns will automatically round up all expenses to the nearest dollar, setting aside the difference. Once your savings hit $5, they are automatically invested in a smart investment portfolio.

So, when you buy your morning coffee for $4.25, for example, Acorns deducts $5 from your account and invests the difference in a diversified portfolio of ETFs managed by experts at leading investment firms like Vanguard and BlackRock.

The best part? Sign up today and get a $20 bonus investment.

If inflation stays stubborn because energy prices stay high, debt can become more expensive; if you have credit debt, prioritize paying down your highest APR, or outstanding debt balances, first.

You can also consider consolidating your high-interest debt into a single payment through a personal loan at a lower interest rate (ideally). This way, you don’t have to juggle multiple payments.

Lending marketplaces like Upstart can match you with a personal loan offer in minutes.

Instead of relying solely on credit scores, Upstart’s AI-powered platform looks at various factors — including income, education and employment — to give you offers that may be better suited for your individual situation.

Applying is fast and simple. Just submit a few personal and financial details and get an instant decision from Upstart’s AI-powered platform. Once approved, your loan is funded by a trusted bank or credit union partner, often as soon as the next business day.

Market volatility is part of investing, but putting a portion of your portfolio into safe haven assets can help cushion the ride.

Gold, for example, has stood out as a strong performer over the past 12 months, jumping by more than 50% as of April 14 (15). And the precious metal has long acted as a hedge against inflation and market swings, sometimes outperforming stocks during downturns.

Even longtime skeptics are reconsidering.

Jamie Dimon, who has long said he isn’t a “gold buyer” because it “costs 4% to own,” admitted at the Forbes 2025 Power Women’s Summit that the current market may justify holding some gold (16).

“This is one of the few times in my life, it’s semi-rational to have some in your portfolio,” Dimon said.

One way to invest in gold that also provides significant tax advantages is to open a gold IRA with the help of Priority Gold.

Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, thereby combining the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold, making it an attractive option for those looking to potentially hedge their retirement funds against economic uncertainty.

To learn more, you can get a free information guide that includes details on how to get up to $10,000 in free silver on qualifying purchases.

— With files from Chris Clark

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@michaeljburry (1); BBC (2); CNBC (3), (4), (7), (12); Yahoo News (5); The Guardian (6); PBS (8); Yahoo Finance (9); AAA Fuel Prices (10); Reuters (11); Berkshire Hathaway (13); Acorns (14); APMEX (15); Fortune (16)

This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.