April inflation shoots 3.8% higher on surging prices from war in Iran

The Labor Department’s consumer price index rose 3.8% from April 2025, according to data released Tuesday. On a month-to-month basis, April prices rose 0.6% from March as gasoline prices rose 5.4% during the month; the month-over-month gain was down from 0.9% increase from February to March.

Labor Department figures showed that gasoline prices are up more than 28% compared to a year ago. AAA says the average gallon of gasoline costs motorists more than $4.50 a gallon, about 44% more than it cost last year at this time.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called consumer core prices rose 0.4% last month from March and 2.8% from April 2025, relatively modest readings that suggest the energy price burst isn’t spilling over much yet into other prices.

Grocery prices rose 0.7% from March to April, as meat prices rose, after falling slightly the month before.

Inflation had been dropping more or less steadily since peaking with a 9.1% year-over-year spike in prices in June 2022, a surge caused by supply chain bottlenecks at the end of COVID-19 lockdowns and an energy price shock following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Then, the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, and Tehran responded by shutting off access to the Gulf of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes. Energy prices rocketed in response.

The Fed, which had been expected to cut its benchmark interest rates in 2026, has turned cautious as it waits to see how long conflict lasts and whether higher energy prices spill over into other products and cause a broader inflationary outbreak.

President Donald Trump has lambasted the Fed and its outgoing chair, Jerome Powell, for refusing to slash rates to boost the economy. Kevin Warsh, the president’s hand-picked choice to succeed Powell, is expected to be confirmed by the Senate this week; but it’s unclear whether Warsh would pursue lower rates given the uncertainties arising from the war — or whether he could persuade his colleagues on the Fed’s rate-setting committee to go along if he tried.

Americans are getting squeezed by gasoline prices that have shot past $4.50 a gallon. Some companies are also starting to feel the pain. For example, Whirlpool, which makes KitchenAid and Maytag appliances, reported last week that revenue dropped nearly 10% in its most recent quarter and said that the war has caused a “recession-level industry decline″ that has undermined consumer confidence.