When the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s tariffs two months ago, many companies rejoiced at the prospect of returning to pre-tariff prices and the possibility of getting a refund back from the government. However, the ruling may have also created a $166 billion problem.
U.S. importers—who have shouldered the brunt of the tariffs—are now waiting to receive an estimated $166 billion in refunds on the levies. But, battered by supply chain woes as a result of the import tax, hiked energy prices thanks to the Iran war, and nervous consumers bracing for recession, many large companies are scrambling for cash.
“Businesses are struggling,” said Alex Hennick, president and CEO of A.D. Hennick and Associates, a liquidation firm which specializes in distressed asset recovery. “The economy is tough right now. The cost of manufacturing is up, traffic is down, and retail sales are down. So this can be a situation where the company is struggling and they need this money in order to survive.”
“It’s a situation where people are trying to be creative,” he told Fortune.
And the data backs him up. A KPMG survey in February found more than half of U.S. companies experienced compressing margins, with 82% reporting a decline in foreign sales, while 61% reporting a decline in domestic ones. Nearly 70% of firms said they delayed major investments as a result of the tariffs.
In February, the Supreme Court deemed tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) unlawful and laid the groundwork for U.S. companies to recoup what they paid over the year the tariffs were in place. However, there are still question marks on when these refunds will be distributed, and how much of them businesses will actually see. The highest court offered no specifics on how the refunds would be determined or distributed, leaving it up to the Court of International Trade and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to determine the refund process. According to the CBP, once its automated payment system is online, refunds should take 45 days to distribute. The first phase of the system’s deployment will launch on April 20.
Some companies can’t afford to wait. Instead, cash-hungry businesses are taking their tariff refund claims to the bank, and using them as collateral for loans.
“If you need the cash flow in order for your business to grow, to survive,” Hennick said. “It’s something where you’re better off having it now and trying to make it than waiting,”
When tariff claims become loan collateral
According to a recent CBP filing at the end of March, of the more than 330,000 U.S. importers affected by tariffs, 26,664 importers have signed up for the agency’s automatic refund system, or just 8% of all importers. Those importers already account for $120 billion in tariff revenue, according to the documents, meaning any importers who sign up for a refund will only be able to request reimbursement from what remains of the $166 billion in tariff revenue.
Many of these large companies hit hardest by tariffs—particularly those in the manufacturing and automotive industries, and retail and consumer goods—could see using refund claims as loan collateral as worth it, Hennick suggested.
Despite interest rates on loans remaining elevated for the last five years, the prospect of immediately receiving cash is a relief to companies who are still grappling with the uncertainty on when, exactly, they will get their refunds. It’s also an alternative to the $100 billion secondary market that has emerged around companies selling the rights to refund claims to hedge funds and liquidity specialists. Selling the rights to tariff refund claims may allow companies to outright receive about a fraction of the eventual refund value and relinquish the headache of refund uncertainty, but it also means they are unable to cash in on the greater refund they would have received had they chosen to wait out the rebate process.
Wes Harrell, a broker and head of a trading group at capital markets firm Seaport Global, told Fortune that in these instances, the loan-to-value ratio of potential refunds used as collateral might be about 50%, meaning a $10 million refund claim would only be worth $5 million as a loan. By comparison, companies selling the rights to their refund claims are doing so for about a quarter of their projected value.
According to Hennick, whatever decision companies make on how to leverage the refund claims comes down to their appetite for risk—but he predicts more firms than not will have to make tough choices, as opposed to simply waiting for refunds.
“It’s coming to the point where some people might have no choice,” he said. “They’re either going to have to sell their claim or they’re going to have to borrow money to get money in order to continue to operate their business.”
The risks of more borrowing
Harrell, however, sees meaningful risks associated with the borrowing. There’s a chance the government may issue only a partial refund or may reject a business’s claim altogether. Despite CBP’s estimations, some supply chain experts believe it may take years for the Trump administration to dole out the rebates as a result of the sheer magnitude of the money in question. If refunds take longer than anticipated, the interest accrued on a loan may be greater than the refund itself.
“As an importer, you’re still fully exposed to the timing of the legal process because you have, in effect, retained your rights to the full refund,” Harrell said. “You haven’t solved the problem. You’ve just financed it.”
As time goes on without definitive answers on refunds, Harrell sees more companies taking actions like selling the rights to their claims, preferring to pocket money now instead of waiting for a sum later down the line.
“CFOs are going to prefer to have clarity and certainty around their capital,” he said, “as opposed to uncertainty on a contingent government receivable with no defined timeline.”
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