Nifty IT in sell-on-rise mode, may fall another 8-10%: Rupak De

The Nifty IT index remains under sustained technical pressure, with recent attempts at recovery lacking conviction and failing to alter the broader bearish structure. According to Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, the sector continues to exhibit a sell-on-rise bias, with risk appetite subdued and the possibility of further downside if key resistance levels remain unchallenged.

Edited excerpts from a chat:

Nifty ended last week around 1% lower as IT stocks pulled the index down. How do you see the market shaping up in the first week of March?Nifty ended the week on a negative note due to the fall on the last day, when it slipped below the 200 DMA, confirming a negative sentiment that might persist for a few more days. The week started with selling in IT stocks, but the selling pressure spilled over into heavyweight Reliance and the realty pack. The final nail in the coffin came from the strongest sector, banks. The Bank Nifty slipped below the 21 EMA for the first time in many days, giving rise to a cautious sentiment. Going into March, I expect the stage to be set for a weak market, at least in the first half of the month. Support on the lower end is visible at 24,500. On the higher end, resistance is placed at 25,500, above which sentiment might improve slightly.

In the last 3 days, Nifty IT attempted to climb up. What do you think is this a dead cat bounce or sustainable uptrend? Is it too early to say that IT stocks have bottomed out?The last three-day bounce in the IT space was feeble, limited, and unconvincing. As the index fell below the previous swing low, more investors unwound their long positions, as risk-averse sentiment in the space is in place, not the other way around. I believe that as long as it remains below 31,500, the index is likely to remain a sell on rise. On the lower end, we might see another round of selling in the space, taking the index down by another 8–10%. In the last 3 trading sessions, have we seen shorts winding up in IT stocks?I don’t feel so; in fact, more people sold on the bounce, leading to a fall from the three-day high.

Metals are doing well. What are the charts telling you?Metals did really well, ending the month as gainers, but the momentum seems to be lacking, as the proximity to the upper band of the rising channel has led to lackluster movement. I believe there is a strong possibility of further correction in the space. However, the fundamental difference between metals and IT is that metals still remain a buy on dips, but the same cannot be said for IT.

Tejas was the biggest gainer in the week. How would you trade the stock now?The stock generally moves up to give a one-off kind of rally and then retraces back below the previous low, which has been the phenomenon for more than a year. However, this time it seems to be a bit different, as the price rise was backed by significantly higher volume. The follow-through buying on the second day is also a confirming factor. The stock should be held or bought with a stop loss of 400, while on the higher end, it might move towards 550.

Give us your top ideas of the week.

Buy CHENNAIPETRO 962 | SL 929 | TGT 1010The stock has given a decent upside breakout, leading to a definitive rise in positive sentiment, as more buyers are now willing to pay higher prices for the same stock. The 21 EMA and 50 DMA are in a bullish crossover, giving a thumbs up to a positive trend. The RSI is in a bullish crossover. Over the short term, the trend is likely to favor the bulls, with potential to reach 1010, while support is placed at 929.

Buy SAILIFE 998 | SL 964 | TGT 1040The stock has given a previous swing high breakout, leading to an increase in positive sentiment. The price has been sustaining above the 21 EMA and 50 DMA, giving a thumbs up to a positive trend. The RSI is in a bullish crossover. Over the short term, the trend is likely to favor the bulls, with potential to reach 1040, while support is placed at 964.

Sell AXISBANK 1383 | SL 1416 | TGT 1330The stock has given a consolidation breakdown, raising a bearish view on the stock. On the hourly chart, the stock price has fallen below the 21 EMA, suggesting the emergence of a negative trend. The hourly RSI is in a bearish crossover. On the lower end, it might fall towards 1330, while resistance is placed at 1416, above which sentiment might improve.