The total crypto market cap surged to a record $3.96 trillion this week, driven by the passage of a major regulatory bill in the US. However, struggled to hold above $120,000, hovering near $118,000 for most of the week.
Bitcoin’s price moved within a narrow range of $117,000 to $120,000 as strong demand met waves of profit-taking. Despite the short-term volatility, the broader market—excluding Bitcoin—rose over 10%, showing growing interest in altcoins.
The key driver behind this rally is the GENIUS Act, recently passed in the US House of Representatives. The bill introduces clear and stable crypto regulations—especially around stablecoins—which could mark a turning point for investor confidence. With both retail and institutional capital seeking clarity, this legislation may help unlock the next wave of inflows into the crypto space.
At the same time, more companies around the world are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, and ETF investments in Bitcoin continue to grow. These developments are boosting overall confidence in the asset. However, periods of profit-taking are likely along the way, which could lead to short-term price swings—even within the broader uptrend.
Short-Term Outlook for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend remains intact, though the first half of the year saw choppy price action. Since early July, the price has resumed its upward move, entering the Fibonacci expansion zone between $114,000 and $125,000.
This week, Bitcoin briefly pushed above $120,000 but has yet to break the Fib 1.414 resistance at $119,000. Price action is now consolidating just below this key level. A weekly close above $119,000 could give buyers the momentum needed to target the next resistance at $125,400 in the near term.
On the daily chart, BTC is holding above its short-term exponential moving averages, which are still trending upward. As long as Bitcoin stays above $117,500 during any pullbacks, the bullish outlook remains intact. Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI remains in overbought territory, suggesting continued strong demand.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin sees a pullback, daily closes below $117,500 could open the door to a decline toward $114,600. This level marks the lower boundary of the Fibonacci expansion zone (Fib 1.272) and will be key to watch—holding above it is important to avoid a deeper correction.
Long-term Targets for Bitcoin
Looking at Bitcoin from a broader perspective on the weekly chart, the positive momentum that began in 2023 appears to be continuing in a healthy way. Since May, Bitcoin has held above the key psychological level of $100,000 and is now approaching the midpoint of its long-term rising channel.
If Bitcoin can close above $125,400 on a weekly basis, it could open the door to a move toward the $150,000 region. Beyond that, the next medium-term target lies between $200,000 and $230,000—the upper boundary of the channel. Based on previous bullish cycles, the long-term technical target over the next year or more could reach as high as $310,000.
On the other hand, increased selling pressure near the short-term target of $125,000 could trigger downward momentum, potentially pulling Bitcoin back toward the key psychological level of $100,000. If this level holds, it may help reinforce the broader trend and support a renewed push toward medium- and long-term targets.
However, if $100,000 is lost, the risk of a deeper correction toward the $67,000 zone emerges. Such a decline would likely require a significant deterioration in macroeconomic conditions or the rise of a major global risk event.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk rests with the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.
