We Ran the Numbers and Found the Best Type of Short-Term Rental—Here’s How the Data Stacks Up

In This Article

I’ve spent the last few months building what I think is the most honest short-term rental investment comparison available right now, covering five property types, four dimensions, and pro forma expense lines.

Before we get into it, the full guide is free. If you want the complete data tables, pro formas, scorecard, and 10-year outlook in one place, download the BiggerPockets STR Investment Guide.

Now let’s get into it. The five archetypes we compared: 

Beachfront (Southeast Gulf/Atlantic Coast)
Lakefront (major U.S. lakes)
Downtown Urban Townhouse (Nashville, Austin, Denver)
Treehouse/Unique Rural Stay
Suburban House with Pool (Sunbelt)

Each one scored across cash flow, appreciation, bonus depreciation potential, and long-term market durability. 

Here’s what the data actually says.

The Short-Term Rental Category Showdown

The Suburban House with Pool category scored the highest overall. It’s not the most exciting answer. But the numbers don’t care about excitement. We’re talking accessible entry price in the $350K-$700K range, gross yields running 8%-14%, the lowest regulatory exposure of any category, and a Sunbelt demographic tailwind that isn’t slowing down. 

The Sunbelt holds about 50% of the national population today and is projected to reach 55% by 2040. Markets like Princeton and Fulshear, Texas, are two of the fastest-growing communities in the country. That’s not a niche bet. That’s where people are moving.

The Treehouse/Unique Rural Stay category scored second overall, but for completely different reasons. The ceiling here is the highest of any type.

Top-performing treehouses generate $200K+ annually, with ADRs reaching $1,300 per night. There are documented builds that cost $175K and earn $150K+ per year. That’s real. What’s also real: The median rural unique listing barely clears $20K. 

The difference is concept clarity, market validation, and operators who run it like a business. The benchmark market suggested my first glamping unit would earn $25K a year. We’ve cleared $95K+ every year since. Operator skill is the variable that the data can’t capture for you.

Lakefront is the strongest pure appreciation play in the guide. Lake Geneva’s lakefront has appreciated 8%-12% annually over the past decade. Central Florida lakefront outperforms the broader market by two to three points annually due to constrained supply. 

But run the actual debt service math on a financed lakefront deal at today’s rates, and positive cash flow from Day 1 is rare. You’re buying appreciation. If you need income from the jump, the lakefront is the wrong category in the current interest rate environment.

Beachfront has the revenue and appreciation story, especially in Florida, where state preemption law prevents municipalities from outright banning STRs. The headwind is insurance. Florida coastal homeowner premiums are already running $7,000+ on barrier island properties and climbing. VE zone flood insurance adds another $5,000-$20,000 on top. Those numbers need to be in your underwriting from Day 1, not added later when the renewal hits.

The Downtown Urban Townhouse category scored lowest overall. The revenue is real. Nashville benchmarks at $288-$350 ADR and 50.9% occupancy.

The problem is the regulatory environment. NYC’s Local Law 18 dropped Airbnb listings by roughly 92%. Barcelona is banning all STRs by 2028. Nashville already restricts non-owner-occupied STRs to commercial and mixed-use zones. 

The global pattern is consistent: Cities are moving toward restrictions. If your deal only pencils out as an STR, you don’t have a deal; you have a bet that the regulatory environment stays the same.

What Investors Miss

The section of the guide I’m most proud of is the management model comparison. Most investors spend all their energy picking the right market and property type, then hand it to a property manager and wonder why the returns don’t match the projections.

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Here’s what that looks like on a $550K suburban pool house generating $82K gross annually:

Airbnb plus a property manager: Negative $5,372 annual cash flow
Self-managed with direct bookings: +$12,836 annual cash flow

Same property. Same gross revenue. An $18,208 swing in your bottom line, depending on how you run it. The property is not the variable. The management model is.

Direct booking isn’t a complex marketing operation. It starts with collecting guest emails, sending a post-stay follow-up message, having a simple direct booking page, and asking happy guests to come back directly. 

Most hosts never do any of these things. The ones who do compound that advantage every year.

The guide also covers:

Bonus depreciation (100% was restored for qualifying property placed in service after Jan. 19, 2025)
Appreciation outlook through 2035
The six key risks most investors underestimate, including seasonality, reserves, and supply growth
Three detailed downside scenarios that most STR content skips entirely.

Final Thoughts

If you want the full picture—the pro formas, the scorecard, the 10-year outlook—it’s all in one place, and it’s free. Download the BiggerPockets STR Investment Guide here.

And if you’re serious about taking your STR investing further, a BiggerPockets membership gives you access to the full community, calculators, and resources that have helped thousands of investors find, analyze, and close their first and next deals. Check out BiggerPockets membership options here.