Prediction markets see government shutdown lasting nearly two weeks

Traders in prediction markets are betting that the U.S. government shutdown could drag on for nearly two weeks, with odds rising that Congress will not reach a deal until at least mid-October.

On Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, the current forecast implies the stoppage will last 11.1 days, up sharply in recent days as negotiations on Capitol Hill have stalled.

On Polymarket, traders see the highest likelihood that the government won’t reopen until Oct. 15 or later, with that outcome carrying about a 38% probability. By comparison, odds of a resolution in the Oct. 6-9 window stand at 23%, while Oct. 10-14 carries 22%. Only 14% of traders expect lawmakers to strike a deal in the coming days, on Oct. 3-5.

The full shutdown began early Wednesday morning after top Democrats and Republicans, including President Donald Trump, failed to agree on a short-term deal to keep the government funded. It sets the stage for the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal workers and the shuttering of a slew of key programs and services.

The length of a government closure matters as a longer-than-normal stoppage could weigh on an already fragile economy and put pressure on a stock market near record highs.

Government shutdowns on average last about 14 days, based on data from Bank of America going back to 1990. While the S&P 500 has averaged a 1% increase during these events, a prolonged closure this time could rattle markets.