Nvidia’s trillion-dollar run puts pressure on the bulls

Earnings for chip giant Nvidia are always a big deal for the stock market but are stacking up to be monumental this time, with headlines resurfacing hopes that a U.S.-China trade deal may open the gates for the company to start selling its chips to Chinese companies.

The biggest stock in the world added another 20% since May 5, including a 4.4% rally Thursday after reports that the U.S. cleared a handful of Chinese firms to buy Nvidia’s H200 processors used for AI applications. Nvidia’s market cap is now just shy of $5.7 trillion, up from $4.7 trillion as of market close last Tuesday.

The sharp surge in the stock price means many bullish options traders who were buying calls ahead of this quarter’s earnings report are already “in the money,” meaning the stock is trading above their strike price. That’s increased leverage in the options market into options expiry Friday, as well as next week, with $40 billion of options delta trading against just $4 billion of total premium.

Nvidia reports next Wednesday, May 20, after the bell.

The top ten most popular Nvidia options by volume all expire today, with the 235-strike call accounting for $114 million in options premium and almost $5 billion in delta. Those traders will need the stock to at least hold onto this week’s gains through the bell Friday or face a swift drop in value.

“How do you reprice China reopening to Nvidia, I think that’s what people are repositioning for right now,” said Brent Kochuba, founder at SpotGamma. “You have these calls that are gaining a lot of value.”

Looking at earnings next week, traders are expecting a big move. The implied volatility for Nvidia earnings is just shy of 7.5%, which is more than double the median move after the past four quarters.

The most popular options contract by volume expiring next Friday, the May 22 250-strike call that sells for about $4, needs almost exactly that – at a minimum.