Gold pure gold bar models captured in Shanghai, China on March 15, 2026.
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Gold and oil have been two of the hottest trades of the last 12 months, but one could be causing the other to falter now.
What’s good for energy stocks may be bad for precious metals if the rally in crude means a rise in Treasury yields, which usually means lower gold prices.
Sentiment has been shifting bearish in the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) over the past week, with put volumes approaching that of calls and almost twice as many calls being sold in Monday’s session vs being bought. Put premiums now also surpass call premiums, with $128 million of puts trading in the session, compared to $119 million in calls, according to SpotGamma.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), 1 year
Whether gold turns south will likely depend on if Treasury yields keep heading north. The 10-year yield touched 4.45% Monday, just a hair away from its year-to-date high which was the highest since last summer. Some traders believe the surge in oil could reignite inflation, causing the Federal Reserve to raise, rather than lower, rates.
The long-term Treasury ETF (the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) dropped 76 basis points as a result and options action is skewing negative for that ETF, too. Put volume was nearly the same as call volume Monday and most puts were bought, with the biggest trade of the day a $1.8 million purchase of 10,000 84-strike puts expiring Aug. 21.
Bond prices and yields move inversely so a bearish position on that ETF is a bet on rising rates.
A key test looms in the form of this week’s jobs report, which may give some insight in the Fed’s next move.
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