Bass and Pratt will advance in L.A. mayoral race, traders say

Los Angeles voters are heading to the polls Tuesday to elect their next mayor, a race that has put all eyes on the nation’s second-largest city. 

But if no one reaches more than 50% of the vote after all the ballots are counted, the top-two vote getters will head to a November runoff. Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think the incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and insurgent former reality TV star Spencer Pratt are most likely to advance to the second round.

Traders are fairly certain Bass will make it to the second round, giving her 93% odds. Bass has consistently led in public polls of the race, though has been well short of the 50% mark for an outright win in the first round. Pratt has about a 3-in-4 chance of advancing, according to traders. 

City Councilmember Nithya Raman is also challenging the incumbent. Raman has a 28% chance of advancing to the second round. 

Los Angeles mayoral elections are nonpartisan, though Pratt is a registered Republican, while Raman and Bass are Democrats.

Traders once viewed Raman as the favorite to win the mayor’s office, with nearly a 60% chance of victory at one point, though her odds collapsed on Kalshi after a May debate. Her chances of winning the whole race are now at just 11%.

The fall was so notable that Pratt has made several comments about it on the campaign trail. “She went from 64% on Kalshi, to 8%,” he said on Bill Maher’s “Club Random” podcast. “So she got bombed, she’s done.”

Pratt, though, only has a 25% chance of winning the mayor’s office. Traders place 65% odds that Bass is reelected.

While Bass was seen as vulnerable after her approval ratings fell following her handling of wildfires that swept the city and surrounding region in 2025, Pratt’s conservative-leaning politics could be a barrier to earning support from a majority of voters in a very blue city. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won 70% of Angelenos’ votes in the 2024 presidential election. 

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.