In this week’s webinar, I walked through a very busy macro setup, with multiple central bank decisions on the table, including the Fed, ECB, BOE, and BOJ. Even if most are expected to hold rates, inflation remains the key issue, and the tone of each central bank could create strong moves across FX.
I started with US yields and the dollar, where I still see near-term weakness, at least early in the week, based on corrective structures. This opens the door for and to push higher, with the euro possibly targeting the 1.19 area. However, I remain flexible, as central bank divergence later in the week could bring volatility and temporary reversals.
I also covered cross pairs like , which may be forming a triangle, suggesting pound strength relative to the euro. On commodity FX, still looks constructive short term, even though it remains within a higher degree of consolidation.
remains tricky due to intervention risk. Price action is still corrective, but any sharp upside move could trigger stronger reactions from policymakers, so risk management here is key.
In commodities, and are still in consolidation, with no clear trend yet. Higher rates or delayed rate cuts could keep metals under pressure for longer, so I think better opportunities may come later this year. also looks like it needs more time, with a possible downside continuation once the current range resolves.
On equities, SPX and are still holding bullish structures, although short-term pullbacks are possible, especially around central bank events. I still think dips could be opportunities if the broader trend remains intact.
I also reviewed several US stocks. may be forming a triangle, looks set for a wave four pullback before higher, while remains strong but could see short-term dips. On the other hand, shows a bearish structure, so it stands out as a weaker name.
In crypto, I see increasing risk for a short-term pullback. and total market cap both show corrective patterns, and unless key resistance levels are broken, I expect more downside or sideways action before any stronger move higher. Altcoins and also look vulnerable in the near term.
Overall, the week ahead is driven by central banks and inflation expectations. I still see opportunities, especially on FX, but I would stay flexible and patient, as volatility around policy decisions could create both breakouts and false moves.
For more check the video below:
