With published today, most Fed members eye this year, but are split on what are the next steps.
One must cynically wonder which of the members is eyeing Powell’s job.
President Trump has made no secret of how much he wants rate cuts, to the point of insulting Jerome Powell’s intelligence.
And so, will Trump get what he wants?
If Powell quits (rumored) will there be a Supercycle in commodities?
A topic I have covered extensively.
We still have the debate on stagflation or disinflation.
Meanwhile, my trifecta of inflation is working well.
– to ratio-narrowed but needs to narrow more
– in a downtrend with only narrow rallies
– Now potentially bottoming.
The chart of the long bonds , suggests that Trump will have his way and at some point, rates will drop.
In the meantime, just that perception is giving long bonds a bid.
And do not forget, sometimes it is buy the rumor and sell the news.
A lesson in phases and momentum:
In early June, I wrote a Daily about the long bonds and the bullish phase change.
I was prepared for the phase change as momentum (circled), cleared the 50-DMA (blue) before the price did (also circled).
Then, in mid-June, the price followed and closed twice over the 50-DMA to confirm a phase change to recovery.
TLTs climbed to the January 6-month calendar range high (green horizontal line) and that was it for the rally.
Then when TLTs sold off (note the second circle), notice what happened to the momentum!
The momentum never broke the 50-DMA while the price did.
This is the power of our real motion indicator.
Furthermore, now that TLT has cleared the 50-DMA once again, one has to think that the momentum is calling for a rally.
The long bonds are acting as though lower rates are coming.
Whether that is true or not, the charts always precede the narrative.
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) 618 support
Russell 2000 (IWM) 218 pivotal
Dow (DIA) 442 support
Nasdaq (QQQ) 550 support
Regional banks (KRE) 60 pivotal support
Semiconductors (SMH) 280 support
Transportation (IYT) 70 pivotal
Biotechnology (IBB) 130 now must hold
Retail (XRT) 80 must hold for best bullish case
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) If holds 110 see 125k next
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