Our sources in the region say that there are still bullets being shot from both sides. Israel accuses Iran of violating a ceasefire, but Tehran denies the claim. President Donald Trump said Israeli jets had turned back from their planned strikes on Iran and that the ceasefire remains in effect. There were reports of an explosion in Tehran, and Iranian state media said a radar station had been hit. Meanwhile, Trump sharply criticized Israel for preparing a heavy retaliation against a ceasefire violation by Iran that he said involved a single rocket missing its target.
The Neocons have long held that their goal was the overthrow of the Revolutionary Government. While our computer was clearly showing that the markets would pull back before any ceasefire, even oil ran up, but could not get through our Weekly Bullish Reversal. The markets are always the best indicator of the future. As I have said, when I created this model, I never expected it to forecast war. However, someone always knows in advance, and the capital flows begin to shift. Here, despite all the headlines, the computer was NOT showing a significant rally in gold or oil. This is why we should never trade based just on the emotional headlines.
The likelihood of this ceasefire becoming permanent is probably ZERO. The real question is whether Russia or China can afford to let the Iranian government collapse. Would the replacement then be a US proxy, such as Ukraine? What would happen to China’s energy source? Then there is the Neocon objective to topple the Iranian government. Are they willing to surrender their lifelong quest to defeat Russia?
