On April 8, Bitcoin’s net unrealized loss (NUP) ratio spiked to 0.0578, the highest level since November 2023. Meanwhile, the net unrealized profit/loss ratio dropped to 0.4253 on the same day, its lowest point since September 2024.
This followed Bitcoin’s drop to $76,000 amid a sharp and aggressive retracement from the mid-$80,000 range it traded in for the past several weeks.
NUPL and NUL are valuable tools for assessing the behavioral state of Bitcoin holders. These metrics are derived from the difference between Bitcoin’s current market price and the realized price — the average price at which all coins were last moved on-chain.
NUPL = (Market Cap – Realized Cap) / Market Cap
NUL = (Realized Cap – Market Cap) / Market Cap
NUPL shows the ratio of unrealized profits in the network. A high NUPL suggests that most coins are profitable, while a low or negative NUPL indicates widespread losses. NUL, its inverse, measures unrealized losses.
A high NUL suggests that many coins are held below their acquisition cost, which is typically associated with capitulation or fear. Together, these indicators help identify market cycles, sentiment transitions, and inflection points that precede major moves.
A NUL of 0.0578 meant that 5.78% of Bitcoin’s market cap was in an unrealized loss. This implies that a considerable cohort of market participants, mostly those who entered near Bitcoin’s March peak, found themselves holding BTC at a loss. This is a meaningful psychological shift, as it signals the onset of fear among short-term holders and the sharp cooling of the bullish sentiment we’ve seen at the beginning of the year.
To put this in context, the lowest NUL reading before 2025 occurred on Dec. 15, 2024, when it reached 0.0. That day, Bitcoin was trading above $104,000, and nearly all holders were in profit. Around the same time, NUPL peaked at 0.6349, a level historically associated with euphoric sentiment and overheated market conditions. These readings were consistent with a mature bull phase, often followed by distribution and increased volatility.
The transition from those extreme highs to the current mid-range suggests a market undergoing correction rather than collapse. NUPL remains above 0.4, indicating that most investors are still in profit. However, a rising NUL implies that losses are growing among recent entrants, particularly those who bought into strength late in the cycle.
First, April’s elevated NUL and declining NUPL reveal that the market has shifted from a risk-on to a highly reactive, cautious sentiment. Profit margins have compressed, and a growing share of coins have slipped into loss. This shows that short-term holders are under immense pressure, and the market recalibrates after a rally.
Second, the relatively modest rise in NUL, still well below 0.1, indicates that this is not a widespread capitulation event. Historically, NUL levels above 0.1 have been associated with deep bear markets and network-wide stress. The current 0.0578 level points to a correction with localized losses, likely centered around recent buyers.
Third, NUPL’s resilience above 0.4 supports the thesis that long-term holders remain largely in profit and unshaken. These holders typically serve as a stabilizing force during volatility, and their conviction often sets the foundation for new accumulation zones.
Fourth, Bitcoin’s price action shows that while the price dropped significantly from its peak, it remained in a historically elevated range above $76,000 and up to $85,000 in April. This further supports the view that the drawdown was technical rather than structural, with little evidence of panic selling or systemic deleveraging.
The NUPL and NUL data clearly show a market in transition. The recovery in both ratios as of April 10 shows that the broader market structure remains intact, with most holders still in profit.
This setup resembles historical phases in which the market consolidates before setting the stage for a new upswing, provided macro conditions remain favorable.
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