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Polymarket investors are now placing a 79% bet that the US government will shut down again before the end of January, a 69% increase over the past 24 hours that brings political uncertainty back into focus.
The crypto-trading prediction market has secured over $5 million in trading volume on whether a shutdown will occur.
Following an over 69% jump in the last day, bettors’ expectations appear to have shifted abruptly, with political tensions intensifying in Washington.
The spike in odds coincides with Democrats’ move to oppose the budget package. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has said Democrats would “not cooperate on a vote to begin consideration” of an appropriations bill that includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Immediately after the remarks, bets on a shutdown surged on Polymarket.
According to Collin Rugg, a major political commentator in the US, the surging odds were highlighted in an X post, noting that they came shortly after Schumer announced that Senate Democrats would not “provide the voters to proceed.”
JUST IN: Odds of a US government shutdown by January 31 spike to 85% on Polymarket after Senator Chuck Schumer announced Democrats would *not* advance the appropriations bill if DHS funding is included.
“What’s happening in Minnesota is appalling —and unacceptable in any… pic.twitter.com/RuC7Ylbzvr
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) January 25, 2026
Trump Sure Of A Shutdown In The Future
US President Donald Trump also did not rule out a shutdown. In a recent interview with Fox Business, he said there was “a problem” and noted that it was “highly likely to lead to another Democrat shutdown.” Such a string of hardline comments from political leaders is stoking market anxiety.
According to Schumer, the DHS bill is woefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of ICE.
The likelihood of a shutdown at the end of January adds uncertainty to the CLARITY Act’s expected timeline, which has recently been called into question and sent the market into a tizzy after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and some executives withdrew support.
Armstrong’s view of the bill has recently been echoed by Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorne. According to Thorne, the bill does not provide a thorough view of stablecoin yields, which he argues may undermine the banking sector’s competitiveness.
https://t.co/0UTzoROGOg
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) January 24, 2026
Industry watchers warn that if the political impasse drags on, regulatory uncertainty could widen once more.
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