The quantum risk to Bitcoin investors is real, but not all wallets are vulnerable, and the people best positioned to address it are working on it, says Galaxy Digital research analyst Will Owens.
Owens said in a report on Thursday that, in theory, a quantum computer could derive private keys from public keys, allowing an attacker to impersonate the owner, forge a signature and steal coins.
However, he argued that not all wallets are equally vulnerable to this risk.
“In fact, most wallets are not vulnerable today. Funds are at risk only when public keys are exposed on-chain,” he said.
Owens said that created two main ways wallets are exposed: those whose public keys are already visible, and wallets whose public keys are revealed at the time of spending.
The threat of quantum computing to crypto has long been debated among the community as an upcoming inflection point. Advanced computers capable of breaking encryption have been theorized as able to reveal user keys, expose sensitive data and steal user funds.
Developers are actively addressing quantum risks
Critics argue the threat posed by quantum computers is overblown because the technology is still decades away from being viable, and banking giants and other traditional targets will be cracked long before Bitcoin.
Owens said there is also online discourse that Bitcoin Core developers are “ignoring and gatekeeping” quantum-related proposals, such as the soft fork BIP 360, but he claims to have found otherwise, noting that the “pace of proposals has accelerated meaningfully since late 2025.”
“Contrary to some public criticism, our review found substantial developer work addressing the question of quantum vulnerabilities and mitigations,” he said.
“The ecosystem now has a concrete and maturing set of proposals spanning the full problem surface. These proposals are not theoretical. They are being actively developed, reviewed, and debated by some of the most experienced contributors in the Bitcoin ecosystem.”
Other industry participants have also proposed solutions. Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo said last November that holding Bitcoin (BTC) in a SegWit wallet for several years could help mitigate quantum-related risks.
Related: Bitcoin could go sub-$50K if quantum isn’t solved by 2028: Capriole
Governance will still likely present a challenge
When the developer community does come up with a post-quantum solution, Owens said it will likely present a challenge because “Bitcoin has no CEO, no board, and no central authority that can mandate a software update.”
“But the nature of this particular threat — external, technical, and universal in its impact — aligns incentives in a way that past disputes over Bitcoin’s economic direction did not,” he said. “Every honest participant in the network, from miners to holders to exchanges, has a direct financial interest in the network’s continued security.”
“For investors, the key takeaway is straightforward: the risk is real but recognized, and the people best positioned to address it are working on it.”
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