Military planners from over 30 countries are meeting in London to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to the UK Ministry of Defense. The ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 18.5% YES, down from 32% yesterday.
Market reaction
This meeting signals a coordinated military approach, not a diplomatic breakthrough. The ceasefire by April 30 contract saw the sharpest drop, as traders repriced the likelihood of peace before the deadline. The largest single move was a 5-point spike at 6:59 PM yesterday.
Why it matters
Nine days remain until the April 30 deadline, and current odds show traders are pessimistic about a quick resolution. The market trades $68,607 in USDC daily, and $4,074 is enough to move odds 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity that is still vulnerable to large orders.
What to watch
The London meeting points toward preparation for military action to secure maritime passage, not an immediate diplomatic resolution. With an April 30 ceasefire priced at 18.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if resolved, a 5.4x return. That payout would require confidence in rapid diplomatic progress or unexpected de-escalation.
Watch for announcements from UK Defense Secretary John Healey or any intermediary involvement from Oman or Qatar. Either could shift market sentiment quickly.
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