Ethereum NUPL Holds Steady, Signaling Market Balance Amid Volatility

Ethereum is demonstrating notable relative strength after reclaiming the $3,150 level and attempting to push higher, offering a refreshing shift in sentiment following weeks of intense selling pressure, fear, and market-wide uncertainty. As the broader crypto landscape begins to stabilize, ETH stands out as one of the assets showing early signs of recovery, drawing renewed attention from traders and long-term investors alike.

NUPL Signals a Transitional Market Phase

Arab Chain notes that Ethereum’s NUPL index experienced a significant rise between June and August, reaching levels far higher than today and reflecting strong profitability across the network during mid-2025. At that time, investor sentiment leaned toward optimism, supported by rising prices and improving macro conditions.

Ethereum Net Unrealized Profit and Loss | Source: CryptoQuant

However, as Ethereum’s price began to decline steadily from October onward, unrealized profits started to shrink. This pushed NUPL down toward more neutral territory, signaling a shift in sentiment from elevated optimism to a more grounded, cautious outlook.

Crucially, NUPL has not fallen into negative territory, meaning the average ETH holder has not transitioned into unrealized losses. This is an important sign of underlying market strength. When investors remain in profit, they tend to be less motivated to sell aggressively at lower prices, reducing the risk of panic-driven capitulation and helping stabilize price action during corrections.

Taken together, these signals indicate that Ethereum is currently in a transitional phase. The market is neither euphoric nor fearful—rather, it is waiting for a decisive catalyst to define the next trend. As long as NUPL stays above 0.20, Ethereum retains a meaningful level of investor confidence, increasing the likelihood of a rebound if liquidity strengthens or positive fundamental developments emerge.

ETH Rebounds Strongly on the Weekly Chart

Ethereum’s weekly chart shows a powerful rebound as price surges back above the $3,150–$3,200 region, reclaiming a critical support band that had turned into resistance during the November sell-off. The long lower wick from last week’s candle confirms strong buy-side interest around the $2,700–$2,800 zone, an area that has historically acted as a major demand region during multi-month corrections.

ETH consolidates above key level | Source: ETHUSDT Chart on TradingView

ETH has now reclaimed the 100-week SMA, a key trend indicator currently positioned near $2,900, signaling renewed structural stability. The 200-week SMA, sitting comfortably lower, continues to reinforce the long-term uptrend. However, the 50-week SMA, which has flattened and now looms around the $3,350–$3,400 level, represents the next significant resistance level. ETH will need a decisive weekly close above this moving average to confirm a true shift back into bullish momentum.