Bitcoin may have significant upside from here as its current price appears to be out of step with the forward macroeconomic outlook, according to a crypto researcher.
“The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID,” Bitwise Europe head of research André Dragosch said in an X post on Friday, referring to March 2020 when global pandemic fears sent Bitcoin’s (BTC) price tumbling from around $8,000 to below $5,000.
Dragosch said that while Bitcoin’s current setup mirrors the extreme risk-reward conditions seen during the COVID pandemic, it is also “pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022,” pointing to a period marked by aggressive quantitative tightening from the US Federal Reserve and the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.
Bitcoin is “pricing in” a recessionary environment
“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” Dragosch said, arguing that the asset has already priced in “a lot of the bad news.” On Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reassured US citizens that the nation was not at risk of entering a recession in 2026.
However, Bitcoin’s price has not performed as many market participants had hoped this time of year. After Bitcoin reached new all-time highs of $125,100 on Oct. 5, it entered a downtrend following a $19 billion liquidation event on Oct. 10, which came shortly after US President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.
Crypto market sentiment deteriorated further when Bitcoin fell below the psychological $100,000 level on Nov. 13 and has yet to reclaim it. While it briefly dipped below $90,000 on Nov. 20, some hope was restored when Bitcoin quickly rebounded above the level a few days later.
Dragosch said global growth is likely to pick up from here, driven by the impact of “preceding monetary stimulus,” which he believes could support growth well into 2026, similar to how it did after the COVID-19 pandemic.
“I genuinely think we’re staring at a similar macro setup right now,” Dragosch said.
Bitcoiners are not convinced of a bear market
Other crypto market participants are anticipating a similar rebound.
Crypto trader Alessio Rastani recently told Cointelegraph that the recent drop may not signal the start of a prolonged bear cycle.
Related: Bitcoin price down 20%, stablecoin market cap down $2B: November in charts
Instead, he argued that the data points to a historically recurring setup that has preceded strong rallies roughly 75% of the time.
Meanwhile, BitMine chair Tom Lee said on Wednesday that he is confident Bitcoin will reclaim $100,000 by the end of the year and may even reach new all-time highs.
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