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The Bitcoin price edged down a fraction of a percent in the past 24 hours to trade at $123,748 as of 4:29 a.m. EST, as VanEck says that BTC could be worth half as much as gold by its next halving, which is slated for 2028.
According to Mathew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, “We’ve been saying Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s market cap after the next halving.”
The recent rise in gold prices would place Bitcoin at $644,000 in “equivalent value.”
The ability of the king of cryptocurrencies has, for a long time, been compared to that of gold. Still, gold has outperformed BTC so far this year, rising 50% amid increasing uncertainty over political developments.
However, according to Sigel, younger investors prefer Bitcoin as a store of value.
“Roughly half of gold’s value reflects its use as a store of value rather than industrial or jewelry demand, and surveys show younger consumers in emerging markets increasingly prefer Bitcoin for that role,” he said.
We’ve been saying Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s market cap after the next halving. Roughly half of gold’s value reflects its use as a store of value rather than industrial or jewelry demand, and surveys show younger consumers in emerging markets increasingly prefer Bitcoin…
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) October 7, 2025
Institutions Pour Into Bitcoin As ETFs Hit Record Highs
Sigel’s prediction comes amid strong interest for US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds). These products saw inflows of $1.18 billion in a single day yesterday, their second-largest ever, coinciding with Bitcoin break to a new all-time high.
October’s total ETF inflows now stand at about $3.47 billion over just four trading days.
Between then, the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) dominated the surge, drawing roughly $970 million in new capital. Since their debut, Bitcoin ETFs have amassed around $60 billion in total inflows, underscoring growing institutional confidence.
Bitcoin ETFs have taken in ~$60 billion since launch pic.twitter.com/UyjkhM5f8Y
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) October 6, 2025
BTC rose to a new ATH on Monday, but is now 2% down. Can the price recover to soar to the levels predicted by Sigel?
Bitcoin Price Action Shows Bullish Continuation Within Rising Channel
The BTC price on the 3-day chart reveals a strong bullish structure that has persisted throughout 2024 and into late 2025.
Bitcoin price action has been moving within a rising channel pattern, marked by higher highs and higher lows, which is a signal of an uptrend.
After a brief period of consolidation near the $90,000–$100,000 range, buyers regained control, pushing the price of Bitcoin back above both the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) on the 3-day chart.
The 50 SMA (around $112,000) is currently acting as dynamic support, while the 200 SMA (near $85,000) remains well below, confirming the strength of the long-term bullish momentum.
According to the chart, the former resistances have now turned into solid support levels, particularly around $100,000.
Each pullback into those zones has been met with renewed buying pressure, suggesting that institutional demand continues to underpin the market.
BTC Momentum Indicators Signal Strength But Warn Of Near-Term Cooling
The chart’s momentum indicators further reinforce the bullish sentiment, though they hint at the possibility of short-term consolidation.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at approximately 61, comfortably above the neutral 50 mark but still below the overbought threshold of 70. This suggests that while buying pressure remains dominant, there is room for either a continuation higher or a brief pause before the next breakout.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a similarly encouraging view.
The blue MACD line has crossed above the orange signal line, and the histogram is showing positive momentum, a bullish crossover that often precedes price expansion phases.
If the channel structure holds, the BTC price could climb toward $135,000–$140,000 in the coming weeks, provided it maintains support above $112,000.
A decisive break below that level, however, could open the door for a deeper correction toward $100,000 before buyers step back in.
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