We expect a ‘pullback’ this quarter after EV tax credit expiry

While EV charging companies aren’t on the front lines of the EV battleground as much as automakers, they’re still in the crosshairs.

The landscape evolved after Sept. 30, when the federal EV tax credit expired. EV sales surged before the deadline, but not surprisingly, Q4 sales are expected to plunge 46% quarter over quarter, per Cox Automotive.

ChargePoint (CHPT), the largest US charging network with 70,000 ports nationwide (compared to Tesla’s 35,000 ports), also saw a bump in installations before the expiration of the tax credit. The big question is what happens next.

“We expect to see a bit of a pullback this quarter since so much inventory was moved before it expired,” ChargePoint CEO Rick Wilmer said in an interview with Yahoo Finance.

However, he doesn’t think the lull in EV sales and charger installations will last long.

“I think people that drive EVs are never going back to gas vehicles. We see all kinds of data where they want to stick with electric vehicles once they’ve made the switch,” he said, noting more EV sales will boost charger demand.

Wilmer, a 30-year vet of the Silicon Valley tech scene who was recently named to the Time100 Climate list, believes the combo of new EV products and cheaper prices will determine how big of a headwind the loss of the tax credit will be.

“You’ve seen Ford announce their new [Universal EV Platform]. You’ve got startups like Slate coming out with a low-cost, highly configurable pickup. You see the Koreans continue to introduce new product into the market. So I think in the long haul, EVs will win just because they’re a superior product and the costs are coming down.”

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In its fiscal 2026 Q3 report, ChargePoint said its business grew as EV sales surged, with revenue climbing and gross margins improving, but the company still posted an adjusted EBITDA loss.

The question is how the company will turn the tide to profitability if EV sales are challenged further.

“I don’t think there’s going to be fewer EVs on the road. I mean, there’s a lot of EVs out there. The used EV market is strong, and plug-in hybrids are really selling well — and they all plug into chargers quite often,” Wilmer countered.

ChargePoint shareholders, who’ve seen the stock shave over 90% of its value from highs seen in 2021, will likely want to hear more.

Another big growth area for ChargePoint is Europe, which will help tip the company toward profitability, Wilmer said.

“If you look at the headwinds and tailwinds in Europe, it’s a more favorable environment than we have in North America at the moment,” he said, “And we’ve designed all of our new products to be global, to serve both Europe and North America,” where the company operates 39,000 DC fast chargers and more than 127,000 ports. “So we expect to be very strong in Europe and really see revenue in that continent grow over the coming year and beyond.”

Turning back to the US, another area of emphasis for the company is commercial and retail build-out, meaning places of work, parking garages, fast food locations, malls, municipal buildings, and even select Airbnb properties, as the company signed on as a ChargePoint partner last year.

“So why are people taking their hard-earned money and charging in the parking lot of their workplace, or their restaurant, or their shopping mall? Well, the reason why is they want to attract people that drive to come spend money at their business,” Wilmer said.

Wilmer believes the industry has reached a tipping point, where there are just enough EVs on the road, especially on the coasts, that it will matter for business owners.

“If you don’t offer EV charging, the people you care about, that you want to frequent your institution, whether it’s to work there, shop there, sleep there, eat there, they’re just not going to come.”

Pras Subramanian is Lead Auto Reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on X and on Instagram.

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