“Better than feared.”
That’s the three-word verdict from Wedbush’s Dan Ives after Tesla(TSLA) reported its latest lackluster production and delivery numbers.
With most leaning bearish, Ives’ take wasn’t the reaction investors were expecting.
Tesla’s delivery numbers came in behind internal targets, but landed close enough to Wall Street’s expectations.
Deliveries are under duress following the loss of the critical $7,500 U.S. tax credit, along with ongoing weakness across Europe. Still, the overall report pointed to stability instead of deterioration.
However, having covered Tesla for years, this isn’t the same EV-centric company it once was.
Ives is echoing the same sentiment, saying investors are judging Tesla on more than just quarterly car deliveries, but also on AI, energy, and autonomy.
CEO Elon Musk made that point clear on Tesla’s Q4 2024 earnings call.
For these reasons, we could see a new-look Tesla, with multiple AI and autonomy catalysts masking weaknesses in its core EV business.
At first glance, Tesla’s Q4 and full-year 2025 production and delivery report was another headline miss.
Here’s where the numbers actually stand.
Q4 2025 deliveries:418,227 vehicles, about 1.1% behind Tesla’s company-compiled analyst consensus of 422,850 and nearly 3.4% under Visible Alpha’s 432,810 estimate.
Q4 2025 production:434,358 vehicles, lagging Bloomberg’s cited consensus of 470,780 by about 7.7%.
Full-year 2025 deliveries:1,636,129 vehicles, mostly in line with Tesla’s compiled consensus of 1,640,752 and close to third-party expectations of about 1.65 million.
Full-year 2025 production:1,654,667 vehicles, which means Tesla produced slightly more than it delivered.
Energy storage (Q4):14.2 GWh deployed, a record quarter, beating Tesla’s compiled consensus of 13.4 GWh by nearly 6%.
Veteran Tesla bull Dan Ives feels the gap between production and delivery numbers was small enough to avoid raising any major red flags.
Ives also believes that Tesla faces significant challenges in achieving delivery growth again, particularly after the loss of the EV tax credit in Q3 and European headwinds.
However, with deliveries more or less matching expectations, he feels Tesla enters 2026 in a strong position.
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Perhaps the brightest spot is its energy business, where deployments jumped to 46.7 gigawatt-hours for the year.
More importantly, though, Ives reiterated the importance of AI, Full Self-Driving, Optimus robotics, and Robotaxis in 2026.
He keeps a buy rating on Tesla stock, with a massive $600 price target.
For perspective, that’s the highest rating on Wall Street.
Tesla stock is currently trading near $438 after releasing its latest delivery report.
The past week has been tough for the stock (down 8%), but it capped off 2025 in the green, delivering a 16% gain.
When I last covered Tesla stock (December 18, 2025), it was trading at $483.37, so it has since declined by roughly 9.4%.
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Nevertheless, it’s still trading at what bears would call a nosebleed valuation, at 268 times non-GAAP forward earnings.
That said, here’s where the big banks and major analysts are pegging the stock right now.
Deutsche Bank: $500 price target (+14%) — stays buy, leaning into the Robotaxi/AI narrative.
BofA Securities: $471 price target (+8%) — raised target but kept a neutral stance, calling Tesla the “physical AI” leader while raising concerns over its valuation. Source:Investing.com
Goldman Sachs: $420 price target (-4%) — nudged its target higher, but it’s still sitting below the tape.
Morgan Stanley: $425 price target (-3%) — equal weight, with Robotaxi framed as the key catalyst for the first half of 2026. Source:Investing.com
UBS: $247 price target (-44%) — sell, arguing the stock’s pricing in too much autonomy upside too soon. Source:Investing.com
Tesla’s 2025 delivery story has been anything but smooth.
The year 2025 began with a major stumble, as Tesla’s Q1 deliveries slid to 336,681, primarily due to Model Y line changeovers, effectively sidelining production for weeks.
Q2 brought improvement with 384,122 deliveries, but it still felt more like grinding progress than a real comeback.
More Tesla:
Q3 then changed the tone with deliveries surging to 497,099, turning into Tesla’s best quarter of last year, driven mainly by customers rushing to access the $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit before it expired.
Additionally, the competition only adds to the current context.
Chinese EV giant BYD yet again ended last year emphatically, selling 4.6 million vehicles, which includes nearly 2.26 million battery EVs, The Guardian reported, blowing past Tesla’s 1.64 million haul.
Moreover, rivals including Geely, NIO, and Li Auto also posted impressive late-year numbers, highlighting the unforgiving nature of the EV landscape for Tesla.
Related: Analyst who nailed 2020 lows drops take on S&P 500
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Jan 4, 2026, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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