US Stock Market: Traders grapple with tail risk as stocks regain highs

New York: With equities back to their highs after a V-shaped recovery from the Iran oil shock, investors are increasingly caught between left and right tail risks: The tireless AI and semiconductor rally on one side and the gradual drag from higher energy prices on the other.

Last week’s megacap tech earnings and Federal Reserve meeting did little to tamp down investor enthusiasm in the US. Meanwhile, the ongoing Iran conflict has oil prices climbing again, raising the specter of inflation and higher interest rates, especially in Europe. That’s keeping options volatility in the region relatively high.

US stocks have largely shrugged off the higher oil price as the earnings season picked up steam in mid-April, but there is still concern that this could change quickly, especially as short-term, daily sensitivity to oil prices hasn’t shifted materially.

Tech Goldilocks

Results from tech giants were mostly positive, with investors cheering better-than-expected earnings but nonplussed by huge capital spending plans. While some of the biggest names such as Meta Platforms Inc. stumbled, other tech stocks kept indexes moving higher. So investors are still playing upside via call options, keeping the Nasdaq 100 Index call skew flat as they chase the rally.

BBVA strategist Michalis Onisiforou noted recently that “the rally’s concentration in semiconductors, while narrow, is often a precursor to broader market participation rather than a sign of exhaustion.”

Given the extreme upside momentum in those stocks since April 8, some investors will be anticipating a period of consolidation with the pace of gains viewed as unsustainable without an additional catalyst. The next big hurdle to jump will be Nvidia Corp.’s earnings after the market close on May 20, which is shaping up as the biggest event — not just for tech stocks, but the broader market.

Europe-US Volatility

Volatility in European benchmark indexes is holding stubbornly higher than in the US, supported by the rising oil prices. Europe is much more sensitive to oil and natural gas supply upsets, though US gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices are surging as well lately.

“The market is faced with higher oil prices, higher yields and an uncertain timeline regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Andy Kent, broker at Kyte. “When we combine these factors, the European equity derivatives market in particular remains in a regime of implied vols significantly higher than realized.”

Reopening the strait could unleash a sharp rally in underowned European stocks, amplified by dealer gamma positioning, while failed talks and another leg higher in oil prices risk triggering a rapid reversal as the market reprices the energy shock. Bank of America Corp. strategists noted that 2026 is shaping up to see an unusually high number of single-stock fragility shocks.

Dealers remain short gamma in the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, according to Kent. That leaves a potential for “gap risk to both the downside and upside based on potential outcomes” — either the US striking Iran again or a resolution that leads to the Strait of Hormuz reopening to shipping, Kent said.

Resilient Dividends

While the Iran war has had a knock-on effect to Euro Stoxx 50 dividends, this corner of equity derivatives has been more resilient. Futures reacted less sharply to the slide in the underlying spot index than during last April’s tariff-driven selloff.

Strategists at Bank of America put this down to more muted dealer hedging dynamics, with the Euro Stoxx 50 spot having remained well above key technical levels relevant for auto-callable hedging and diversification within auto-callable issuance.

Oil Calm

Brent crude futures at one point last week reached the highest price since 2022, but options markets were relatively calm, with implied volatility and the call skew both well below levels seen earlier in the war. A lot of that has to do with the nature of the rally, which has been a steady grind higher instead of the spikes and plunges seen in March.

Oil prices remaining higher are the major stumbling block to a continued rally. Macro conditions are a headwind, according to Ielpo, who notes US inflation is re‑accelerating, euro-zone inflation is back above target and central banks are sounding less dovish.

“The Fed, ECB and BOE are all effectively saying that higher oil prices mean no easy rate cuts,” he said.