How should one understand US president Donald Trump’s decision to make a civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia conditional on the latter joining the Abraham Accords? The decision came just a day after Trump announced the forthcoming agreement, which at that time was standalone, with no conditions attached at all.
Dr. Michal Yaari of the Department of Middle East Studies at Ben Gurion University of the Negev says that the US president’s zig-zag raises many questions. “His declared policy was that a civilian nuclear program was conditional on progress in relations between Riyadh and Jerusalem towards normalization, but yesterday he forwent this condition. Twenty-four hours later he went back to linking the nuclear program and normalization.”
What could explain this change of direction? A possible explanation, Yaari says, is that Trump believes that after Israel’s elections due to be held at the end of October, a new government will arise that will be prepared to make progress on a diplomatic horizon with the Palestinians. “Such a horizon is a threshold condition for normalization of relations with Israel as far as the Saudis are concerned.”
Yaari says that Trump’s turnaround is a surprising move, since it is liable to harm US interests. “Trump is putting the equation between a civilian nuclear program and normalization with Israel back on the table coercively and in an unserious way. He is trying to bend Saudi Arabia’s arm. That’s surprising, since in a period of rising tensions with China, Trump needs renewed closeness with Saudi Arabia. He doesn’t want the Saudis to turn to China or Russia to help further their nuclear ambitions.”
What are the consequences of Trump’s latest decision?
“This behavior will only worsen the crisis of confidence between Saudi Arabia and the US, because of the war between the US and Iran. Ever since the US-Israeli attack on Iran began, the Saudi royal house has said that the decision was made without consulting or involving the Arab countries, and that it had caused them extremely heavy damage. The decision to allow Saudi Arabia to develop civilian nuclear capability was perceived as a step designed to rehabilitate relations between the two countries, and as clearly in the interests of both Riyadh and Washington. The headline in the Saudi press stressed the strengthening of cooperation and the outstanding gains from that for the kingdom.
“Trump’s erratic behavior on a matter critical to Saudi Arabia will deepen the hard feelings in Riyadh and is liable to send a message that the Americans cannot be relied upon and that therefore relations should be deepened with other countries, such as China and Russia, which can help Saudi Arabia in this area.”
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What do you think is the Saudi stance?
“The Saudis are not prepared to enter into normalization with Israel without agreement, if only partial, on a diplomatic horizon on the Palestinian issue. That is a top, main condition, and is the base threshold for negotiations. So for the time being progress on normalization is not feasible.”
Published by Globes, Israel business news – en.globes.co.il – on July 23, 2026.
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd., 2026.
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