The Sun Belt boom is over. Midwest real-estate investors say ‘I told you so’

That story held up — until it didn’t.

Those same Sun Belt markets are now absorbing the consequences of a building boom that flooded them with new supply. Rents in Austin have fallen nearly 20% from their 2022 peak. Orlando, Jacksonville, Nashville, Phoenix — the cities with the most new permits issued in 2023 — also posted the steepest rent declines since. Add surging insurance costs that hit multifamily operators in Florida especially hard, with a Federal Reserve study finding the largest year-over-year premium increases concentrated in Orlando, Houston, Tampa, and San Antonio. Pile on property taxes that have been climbing to match those inflated valuations, and deals that looked great on paper three years ago are a lot less exciting today.

The markets nobody was writing about? They kept right on performing.

Indianapolis. Kansas City. Columbus. These are not markets that generate buzz at industry conferences. They are markets that generate returns.

The risk-adjusted returns available in Midwest markets have always made them more suitable for investors willing to look past the headlines. Factors like steady population growth and job creation, with a construction pace that follows actual demand rather than enthusiasm, create real value. The Midwest tends not to boom; but it also doesn’t bust. For an investor managing risk as carefully as return, that’s not a consolation prize. It’s the whole point.

Take the numbers at face value. Indianapolis and Kansas City both run rent-to-income ratios below 20% — the national average is sitting at 27%. That might sound like a wonky data point, but what it really means is that people can afford to live there. And renters who aren’t stretched to the breaking point every month don’t skip out on rent, don’t bounce from apartment to apartment, and don’t disappear the moment the economy hiccups. Financially stable tenants make for stable assets. It’s really that simple.

It also matters for the tenants themselves. For many of our residents, renting a quality apartment isn’t a lifestyle choice. It’s a financial strategy. They’re putting money in their savings accounts, working toward the day they can buy a home of their own. That’s a relationship worth protecting. In Sun Belt markets where purchase prices are already astronomical and the rent-to-income math is already tighter, the temptation to keep pushing rents beyond what residents can reasonably afford is real. But when multifamily owners squeeze them just to make the numbers work, they suffer the consequences: good tenants leave, trust in the community goes down the toilet, and occupancy tanks anyway. The same boom-bust cycle that punished investors ends up punishing the people who live there.

We’ve been focused on Midwest markets since 2010, and over time the secret has gotten out. These markets proved themselves during the Great Financial Crisis and again during the pandemic. These two moments showed clearly how much more the hot markets swung than the steady ones. For us, it was less a revelation than a reminder of why we’d stayed put.

Our recent acquisition of Kinsley Forest in Kansas City’s Clay County submarket illustrates why we keep coming back to these markets. There are currently just 342 units under construction in Clay County, representing 1.6% of total inventory, and Kansas City is absorbing new units at more than twice the rate they’re being completed. Those aren’t speculative numbers. That’s the kind of balance that produces durable returns.

As more institutional capital recognizes this, increased competition will reduce yields for new acquisitions — that’s how healthy markets work, and we expect that to normalize over time. Nobody’s watching their insurance bill double overnight, and property taxes aren’t playing catch-up to some valuation spike that happened three years ago. These markets aren’t building recklessly, and that’s not changing anytime soon.

Real estate investors often have a way of confusing speed with skill, especially those who don’t live and work here in the Midwest. Every cycle has the same hallmarks: the loudest markets attract the most money, prices chase the momentum, and by the time the last wave of investors gets in, the party is already over. We never played that game here. The Midwest rewards patience and discipline over speculation.

In this business, the flashiest story rarely has the best ending. But wise investment decisions in the Midwest often do. 

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