The move came at a time when investors are preparing for the June-quarter earnings season of Indian IT companies. The sector has been under heavy pressure for months due to weak discretionary technology spending, slower client decision-making, pressure from artificial intelligence-led productivity gains and valuation concerns.
The rebound in Indian IT stocks stood in contrast to the fall in South Korea, where AI-linked chip stocks dragged the market lower. The benchmark KOSPI closed down 395.02 points, or 4.9%, at 7,656.31, after falling as much as 8.2% earlier in the session. The index is now down 16% from its June 22 record close of 9,114.55, though it remains up 82% so far this year.
Circuit breakers were triggered on the KOSPI during the session, the sixth such instance this year, as volatility in semiconductor stocks remained high. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led the decline, ending down 6.9% and 6.1%, respectively, after both fell more than 10% intraday.
Also Read: The Q1 verdict: Can TCS, Infosys, other IT results stop a Rs 17 lakh crore AI-led rout?
Samsung fell even after forecasting a 19-fold jump in second-quarter operating profit. The fall showed that investors are now questioning whether strong AI-linked earnings are already priced into chip stocks after a sharp rally.For Indian IT investors, the concern is different but linked to the same AI theme. While Korean chipmakers have rallied on AI demand, Indian IT stocks have fallen because investors worry that AI could hurt billing growth, reduce manpower-linked revenue and force companies to pass productivity benefits to clients.The correction has been severe. TCS, Infosys, Wipro and LTIMindtree are now down at least 50% from their all-time highs. Across 10 major IT companies, the combined market-cap loss from peak levels is estimated at more than Rs 17 lakh crore.
TCS has seen the biggest destruction in value. The stock has fallen about 56% from its all-time high of Rs 4,592.25 in August 2024 to around Rs 2,033. Its market cap has dropped from Rs 16.48 lakh crore to Rs 7.36 lakh crore, wiping out more than Rs 9.12 lakh crore.
Infosys has nearly halved from its peak of Rs 2,006.45 in December 2024 to Rs 1,006. Its market value has fallen from Rs 8.30 lakh crore to Rs 4.08 lakh crore. Wipro is down 54% from its peak, while LTIMindtree has lost more than 53%. HCL Tech, Persistent Systems, Mphasis and Tech Mahindra have also seen sharp declines.
The latest rise in IT shares may partly reflect bargain buying after the steep fall. But the real test will come with Q1 results and management commentary.
Morgan Stanley expects a muted first quarter for IT companies and subdued commentary for the second quarter. The brokerage sees risks to FY27 revenue guidance ranges and has lowered estimates for large-cap IT companies.
It has also downgraded TCS to equal-weight, saying the stock’s premium to Accenture has risen above 40%, putting valuations for the broader group at risk. Morgan Stanley expects organic revenue growth for most large-cap IT firms to drift towards 1.5-3.5%, except Wipro, where it sees a decline.
Investors will now watch whether companies such as TCS and Infosys can show signs of demand stability, defend margins and explain how AI will support revenue rather than only reduce costs for clients.\
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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