Paxton v. Cornyn – Which Way MAGA?

Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) goes head-to-head with his challenger, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, today, May 26, in the Lone Star State’s Senate GOP runoff. The four-term incumbent is likely feeling the pressure after President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton, as prediction markets and polls strongly favor the president’s pick. Of course, it all comes down to the GOP voter.

Paxton v. Cornyn: The Odds

As of Monday evening, Kalshi’s prediction market gave Paxton a 95.9% chance of beating Cornyn, 74, in the runoff, while the incumbent sank to a dismal 4.3%. Before Trump’s endorsement, Paxton had a 63.7% chance of winning the race to Cornyn’s 37.2%.

A poll from Quantus Insights similarly placed Paxton ahead of Cornyn 52.7% to 43.3%. The survey stated that Paxton has a “clear but not overwhelming advantage,” noting that the challenger “leads among men, women, rural voters, suburban voters, voters without a four-year degree, and across most major media markets.” Cornyn, on the other hand, performed better among “more urban and higher-education segments, including urban voters and graduate-school voters, where he runs ahead or near even.”

Even a poll conducted from April 28 to May 1 by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs found that 48% of voters prefer Paxton, while Cornyn only had the support of 45%.

‘A Robust Family Fight’

Cornyn said he anticipates winning the Republican Party’s nomination, despite heading into the runoff without Trump’s support. “Of course, people are seeking divisions among Republicans. We’re having quite a robust family fight here in the primary,” Cornyn added before giving a nod to his recently ousted congressional colleagues, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who lost their respective primaries to Trump-backed challengers.

The senator may be trying to project confidence, but Cornyn’s comments betray his obvious – and understandable – self-doubt. The incumbent expected to receive Trump’s endorsement until Paxton pulled a devilishly clever political move: He offered to drop out of the race if the Senate GOP abolished the filibuster and passed the Save America Act. The play paid off for Paxton, and now, instead of an endorsement, Cornyn may be facing a wipeout.

Paxton’s political Hail Mary aside, Cornyn has been critical of Trump in the past, even claiming the president couldn’t win in 2024, saying, “I think President Trump’s time has passed him by.” Trump isn’t exactly known for letting perceived disloyalty slide: In the president’s Paxton endorsement, he said Cornyn “was not supportive of me when times were tough” and “was very late in backing me in what turned out to be a Historic Run for the Republican Nomination, and then, the [presidency].”

But Paxton is a “true MAGA Warrior,” Trump said, “and someone who has always been extremely loyal to me and our AMAZING MAGA MOVEMENT.”

Early voting ended on Friday, and today, May 26, is the last day for voters to cast a ballot in the Texas GOP runoff. If Paxton emerges victorious, it will signal that Trump has near-total control over the Republican Party and the ongoing trust of the MAGA voter.