Nifty’s long-term uptrend intact, but short-term trend turns cautious below 25,900: Vinay Rajani

The Nifty has entered a phase of short-term weakness after slipping below the 25,900 mark, though its broader uptrend remains intact unless key support levels are breached, said Vinay Rajani, AVP – Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst, HDFC Securities, in an interview with ET Now.

Rajani said a simple technical reading shows contrasting signals across timeframes. “On the daily chart, the Nifty has been forming lower tops and lower bottoms, indicating short-term bearish momentum. The recent top at 26,057 was lower than the previous peak of 26,202,” he said.

However, the medium- to long-term structure remains positive. “If you look at the weekly chart, the index is still forming higher tops and higher bottoms. Positionally, the Nifty is still in an uptrend, even though the short-term trend has turned cautious,” Rajani added.

Key levels to watch

Rajani highlighted 26,060–26,063 as a crucial resistance zone. “A decisive move above 26,063 would confirm a bullish reversal by establishing a fresh higher top and higher bottom. That is the level bulls need to reclaim for momentum to return,” he said.On the downside, the index has strong support near 25,700, which coincides with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). “This zone has acted as a solid base. As long as 25,700 holds, there is still hope that the Nifty can resume its uptrend,” he noted.

A break below this level, however, would change the market’s character. “Any sustained move below 25,700 would violate the bullish structure and could turn the trend into a positional downtrend,” Rajani cautioned.

Broader market under pressure

Rajani also pointed out that broader markets have started to underperform, adding to near-term uncertainty. “Short-term charts show some negative setups, especially in the broader space. That is why a wait-and-watch approach is advisable at this stage,” he said.

Market outlook

Summing up, Rajani said traders should stay cautious in the near term while keeping an eye on key technical triggers. “Above 26,060, upside momentum can return. Below 25,700, the trend turns decisively negative. Until then, the market is in a consolidation phase with a slight bearish bias in the short term,” he said.