Mystery Bet: Traders move $2 billion just 5 minutes before Trump’s comment on US-Iran talks. What did they buy?

While US President Donald Trump’s announcement on talks with Iran brought much-needed relief to stock markets and oil prices, some traders may have benefitted from the news even before it was out. ‘Mystery’ bets in oil futures and S&P 500 futures made just before Trump’s announcement have raised eyebrows over possible insider trading.

Trump said on Monday that the US and Iran had very good and productive conversations over the last two days regarding the “complete and total resolution” of the rising hostilities in the Middle East. He announced that the US is postponing all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. After the announcement, oil futures crashed up to 15% to fall below the key $100 per barrel mark, while Wall Street rallied.

However, market analysts noted some mysterious bets made just before the announcement. Just five minutes before Trump’s announcement, S&P 500 futures worth $1.5 billion were bought, while oil futures worth $192 million were sold, according to trading platform Unusual Whales.

Around 6,200 futures contracts linked to Brent and WTI crude were traded in a few seconds before Trump’s announcement, according to a report by the Financial Times. The notional value of these trades was estimated at $580 million, the report further said, adding that it remains unclear whether the trades were executed by a single or multiple participants.

Hence, S&P futures were bought at significantly lower levels minutes before they rallied sharply after Trump’s announcement, according to reports. Oil futures, meanwhile, were sold at sharply higher levels just before they tumbled.

The Economic Times could not independently verify the reports.White House spokesperson Kush Desai dismissed the allegations of insider trading. “The White House does not tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off insider knowledge, and any implication that officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting,” he said.Notably, this is not the first time such trades have raised eyebrows before Trump’s announcements. Before the US and Israel conducted joint military strikes on Iran on March 3, killing its former supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and beginning the war in the oil-rich Middle East, several mysterious bets were placed on prediction-market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, making millions for investors betting on the outcome of the conflict.

After Trump’s announcement, Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said no negotiations have been held with the US. “No negotiations have been held with the US, and fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped,” Ghalibaf said in a post on X.

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