Monetary Policy Committee: Rate pause reflects RBI’s watchful eye on tariffs and growth: R Gandhi

“Given the rising inflation—and adding to that, the immediate concerns around tariffs and their potential impact on the economy—the RBI is adopting a cautious approach. While supporting growth is important and credit growth is not yet at the robust level we would like to see, the RBI has chosen to be cautious. That’s because inflation will—not just could—rise in the fourth and first quarters,” says R Gandhi, Former RBI Deputy Governor.

Do you think the Reserve Bank of India wants to first assess the situation before taking the next course of action?R. Gandhi: Actually, that’s not quite the case. The Reserve Bank has taken due note of the fact that inflation is expected to remain above 4% in the fourth quarter of this fiscal and the first quarter of the next fiscal. This is a very important assessment at the moment.

Given the rising inflation—and adding to that, the immediate concerns around tariffs and their potential impact on the economy—the RBI is adopting a cautious approach. While supporting growth is important and credit growth is not yet at the robust level we would like to see, the RBI has chosen to be cautious. That’s because inflation will—not just could—rise in the fourth and first quarters.

That explains the cautionary note and the decision to hold rates at this point. It’s the right move, and it reflects the neutral stance, which indicates the Monetary Policy Committee’s readiness to act in either direction based on incoming data. So, I’m not at all surprised by the pause this time.