Markets may be approaching near-term exhaustion after strong rally: Rohit Srivastava

Indian equities started the week on a strong footing, extending recent gains, though market watchers are increasingly flagging signs of slowing momentum even as the broader uptrend remains intact.

Speaking to ET Now, Rohit Srivastava, Founder, Strike Money Analytics & Indiacharts said the market’s underlying structure is still positive, but momentum indicators suggest the pace of the rally is cooling.

“This is the fifth week of gains for the smallcap index, which is a long stretch. Our RMI indicator has crossed to the sell side for mid and smallcaps despite strong breadth. It shows that the speed of price rise is slowing. We may be nearing the end of this move. However, we made a longer-term bottom in early April, so any pullback should be seen as an opportunity.”

He added that the Nifty faces a key technical hurdle in the near term.

“The level to watch is 24,300, which is immediate resistance. If we fail to move past it, we could retest 23,500. If we break above it, we may move beyond 25,000. As we enter May, a month that often slows after April’s momentum, we should stay alert to near-term volatility.”

While indices may be entering a consolidation phase, sectoral trends are beginning to diverge, with real estate emerging as a standout performer.The Nifty Realty index has surged sharply, raising hopes of a possible base formation after a prolonged downtrend.“The realty index has been falling for over two years, from June 2024 to March 2026. It is possible that the correction has ended, with early value buying now emerging. It is too early to say the sector has fully turned, given oversupply concerns, especially in metros.”

“Prices have started to turn, which is an early positive sign. The real trigger would be a rate cycle change. We have not yet seen bond yields fall or RBI rate cuts. Those will be key future catalysts. But this is likely the first phase of value buying after a long bear market.”

Overall, markets remain at a delicate juncture—supported by strong liquidity and sentiment, but increasingly sensitive to technical resistance levels and macro triggers that will decide the next leg of the trend.