Markets likely to look past geopolitics as oil risks remain contained, says Andrew Freris

In an environment where global markets have repeatedly faced geopolitical shocks, investors appear increasingly conditioned to look through conflicts unless they materially disrupt growth or inflation. Speaking to ET Now, Andrew Freris, CEO, Ecognosis Advisory argued that even rising tensions involving the United States and Iran may not have a lasting impact on markets, though crude oil remains a key variable.

Markets growing used to conflictFreris suggested that markets have built resilience after years of geopolitical uncertainty.

“In the last three years the world has got quite accustomed to wars… I think the markets will simply ignore it. It is as simple as that.”

His remarks reflect a broader shift in investor psychology, where geopolitical events tend to cause short-term volatility but rarely derail broader trends unless they trigger supply shocks.

US data and Fed outlookWith weaker trade and jobless data and key releases like GDP and inflation readings on the horizon, investors are assessing what lies ahead for US monetary policy. Freris expects little clarity from the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

“The Personal Consumer Expenditure Index… has gone up down… with no specific trend… the Fed is not going to cut interest rates for several more months.”He also downplayed concerns around the US trade deficit, describing it as more political than economic in nature, while emphasising that inflation and labour conditions are likely to offset each other.Oil dynamics remain balancedOn crude, Freris highlighted the role of strong US production alongside OPEC supply decisions in keeping prices contained despite geopolitical tensions.

“United States is very neck to neck with OPEC… I do not want to spend too much time on the price of oil as a particular input into global inflation.”

He added that while inflation remains above central bank targets, current levels are not alarming in a global context.

The takeawayThe broader message for investors is that while headlines around geopolitics and oil may create noise, the real drivers remain inflation, growth, and central bank policy. For now, expectations of steady US economic momentum and delayed rate cuts continue to underpin market sentiment.