The most expensive defense system of all time, the US Golden Dome promoted by President Donald Trump, is getting underway, even though nobody knows exactly what it will look like, what threats it will protect against and how much it will cost. The estimated budget ranges from $150 billion to $500 billion. Trump wants to complete the defense system by the end of the administration’s term in 2029, and the Missile Defense Agency will soon issue a call for proposals for defense industries to apply for inclusion in the huge project, announced over the weekend.
The Golden Dome multi layered system will protect against some of the most serious threats to the US, including hypersonic missiles launched from the ground or from space, swarms of drones, and even “engineered asteroids” – giant missiles designed to crash into the ocean and create tsunamis.
Despite Trump’s grandiose declarations, the birth of the system has been characterized mainly by chaos. The threats Golden Dome will address and the structure of the system have not yet been defined, and it was only a week ago that the Senate confirmed the appointment of General Michael Gottlieb as head of the project. He officially assumed office only this week.
The budget is controversial. While Trump promised to allocate $175 billion to operate the system within three years, it now appears that it will stand at about $150 billion spread over a decade, while according to a May congressional estimate, the budget could swell to about $500 million over 20 years. However, the first Congressional bill for the project stands at $25 billion “only” for the purpose of starting it.
Israeli companies cannot compete for tenders by themselves
The name of the futuristic missile defense system is similar to Iron Dome but it has nothing in common with the Israeli system. While Iron Dome was developed to deal with short-range ballistic missiles such as the Kassam and Grad missiles, the US aims to design Golden Dome to deal with maneuvering hypersonic missiles that cruise on an unpredictable trajectory at supersonic speed (the expected threat scenario from a superpower like China), as well as against other aerial threats such as drones and missiles fired from space.
Over the weekend, it was learned that the Pentagon will issue a call for relevant companies that will be able to compete in the tenders when they are announced, within 60 days, General Gottlieb will present the basic architecture of the system.
Estimates in Israel are that several Israeli companies are already getting ready to participate in the tenders but they will not be able to compete by themselves but only in partnership with US companies.
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Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) is interested in taking part in the radar and threat detection tender. IAI’s Elta unit develops and manufactures the Oren Adir detection radar system, which is at the heart of the Arrow long-range missile defense system. IAI also sees itself as a relevant supplier in the field of interception, having developed Arrow 3 missiles to intercept long-range ballistic missiles launched in space, as well as subsequently interception missiles that also deal with maneuvering hypersonic missiles, which require greater sophistication in their interception.
IAI highlights its long-standing experience in dealing with ballistic missiles, demonstrated recently during Iranian attacks, but Lockheed Martin’s THAAD missiles have also gained some experience. But the cost of detecting and intercepting missiles by the Arrow is estimated to be 25% of that by the US system. The Arrow 3 has also proven effective in operations outside the atmosphere, a prerequisite for Golden Dome, which aims to operate interceptor launchers in space.
Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, another Israeli company interested in Golden Dome tenders, offers knowhow and experience in laser interception. Rafael develops and produces the Iron Beam laser interception system, which will be delivered to the Israel Air Force by the end of the year and will be deployed for operational use in early 2026. Rafael will compete with laser manufacturers from the UK and South Korea, but will try to convince senior Pentagon officials that it is the only system to have so far demonstrated operational laser interception during a war.
The dispute with Trump could harm SpaceX’s chances
As for US companies, several have already officially expressed interest in the project, including Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and Northrop Grumman. Software and intelligence systems provider L3 Harris has also announced interest in participating.
Anduril, which is challenging the defense industries by developing aircraft and cruise missiles for the US Ministry of Defense has a low chance of participating because it does not specialize in air defense. But Palantir is considered a leading candidate in the satellite intelligence systems category and well positioned to develop the command and control system for the entire program.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX is a natural candidate to launch satellite systems and intelligence satellites into space, but deteriorating relations with Trump have led Golden Dome executives to talk to rivals like Amazon’s Project Kuiper and emerging companies Stoke Space and Rocket Lab, Reuters reports. But SpaceX is still the leading provider in the field with over 9,000 satellites launched into space to date.
Raytheon and Lockheed Martin – the companies responsible for developing the THAAD, Patriot, and Aegis naval systems – may block competition from young companies by claiming that they are the only experts in intercepting ballistic missiles in the US. However, it is estimated that the players will be chosen who can offer systems that include not only a high threat detection rate but also a low cost per interception. Furthermore, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon know how to deal with ballistic missiles but not with the newer and more sophisticated threats, including missiles that can maneuver in the air, or fall from space.
“Americans must think outside the box”
“The US challenge is twofold. The Chinese and Russians today have twice the number of interceptors that the US will be able to produce in the next five years, and they are selling hypersonic missiles to their allies, so the Americans must think outside the box and not produce more than they already have,” says Dr. Moshik Cohen, a former senior developer of the David’s Sling, Barak 8, and Iron Dome systems and currently CEO of defense-tech company Apex, which deals with drone and hypersonic missile interception technologies.
Cohen explains that the level of threats has increased. “It’s no longer just about ballistic missiles with a predictable trajectory, but about extremely fast hypersonic missiles that maneuver in the air, swarms of drones that can even include hundreds of thousands of units, and missiles that are launched vertically from space.”
There is also a new threat: “engineered asteroids.” According to Cohen, these are tungsten blocks weighing about a hundred tons that may be launched into space and from there to selected points in the ocean. “The explosion could create a huge tsunami wave that could reach a height of 400 meters. Existing systems are not capable of handling all these threats, so fresh thinking and leadership are required to harness the defense industry and US leadership to produce something new, in large quantities and cheaply.”
Published by Globes, Israel business news – en.globes.co.il – on July 29, 2025.
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