Summary
Stock indices were crushed on Thursday, with intraday bounces simply getting sold. As far as “potential” support, a 78.6% retracement of the rally off the August 2024 lows targets 5,339 for the S&P 500 (SPX), while an 88.2% give-back sits at 5,240. Based on the double top, we could see a measured move to the low 5,200s. With the SPX making a closing corrective low on Wednesday, we have bullish breadth divergences based on the percentage of SPX stocks above their 20-, 50-, and 200-day averages. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has traced out a bullish momentum divergence after cycling into oversold territory. But momentum and breadth divergences signal only a possible trend reversal. Price is the final arbiter. The SPX weekly chart shows trendline support, as well as an initial 38.2% retracement of the bull market since October 2022, between 5,130 and 5,250. Longer-term momentum (43-week RSI) needs to hold the 45% area, as bad things often happen when there are additional weekly momentum declines. So far, price is following the lower weekly Bollinger Band to the downside. The SPX needs to retake the lower band for an initial buy signal and get through the middle band for confirmation. On Thursday, the SPX plummeted 4.8%, its largest one-day decline since June 2020 (no
