India makes big moves to attract foreign investments in bonds: How will this impact stock market?

As India sees incessant FII selloff so far this year, the government and RBI announced a slew of measures to ease foreign investments in government securities, with analysts suggesting that these may provide some short-term support for Dalal Street.

India scrapped the long-term capital gains tax on investments by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in government securities through an ordinance issued on Friday. The government has now exempted FIIs from tax on any interest income from government securities, as well as capital gains arising from their sale, exchange or transfer, according to an official gazette. Separately, while announcing the outcome of the MPC meeting, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra also unveiled a series of measures to boost FPI investments, including expanding the Fully Accessible Route (FAR) to cover new issuances of 15-, 30- and 40-year government bonds.

Limits on investments by NRIs and OCIs in equity instruments without Sebi registration are being raised, allowing them to invest larger amounts without regulatory registration. The facility is also proposed to be extended to all Persons Resident Outside India (PROIs), bringing them on par with NRIs and OCIs. This came as the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%

What does this mean for Indian stock market?

The proposal to increase investment limits for NRIs and OCIs in listed equity instruments without Sebi registration, and to extend the same facility to all individual Persons Resident Outside India (PROIs), is a significant step toward broadening participation in Indian capital markets, which is expected to improve market depth, liquidity and long-term capital inflows, said Arun Poddar, CEO of Choice International.

He highlighted that equally important is the removal of capital gains tax on government securities investments for foreign investors. “This move strengthens the attractiveness of India’s bond market and could encourage greater foreign participation in government debt. At a time of heightened global volatility, these measures reinforce investor confidence, support capital inflows, and reaffirm India’s commitment to building deeper, more globally integrated financial markets, with the policy rate expected to remain low for an extended period,” he said.

The government’s move to exempt Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) from capital gains tax on any interest earned from government securities is “highly positive” for the capital markets, said Sumit Singhania, Head of Research at Bajaj Broking. “This fiscal cushion arrives at a crucial time, offering a strong shield to domestic markets as the RBI chief warned of volatile forex markets driven by shifting global sentiments,” he added.The policy is distinctly positive for bond markets and well-capitalized Banks and NBFCs, which benefit from targeted hedging subsidies and systemic stability, according to Archit Doshi, Senior Vice President at PL (Prabhudas Lilladher) AMC. “Conversely, one should be underweight rate-sensitive sectors, which remain highly vulnerable to margin compression, higher inflation expectations, and the threat of the RBI reaching its tightening tipping point,” he said.Rajeev Radhakrishnan, CFA, CIO of Fixed Income at SBI Mutual Fund, also said that the announcements aimed at enabling more dollar inflows are more significant in the near term, even though the overall policy stance has been broadly in line with expectations. “The concessional swap facility should help stabilise short end market rates and the foreign exchange market in the near term,” he said.

For equities and debt markets, the measures to attract FII inflows are supportive of liquidity and inflows, while for the rupee, they signal a clear intent to anchor expectations and reduce volatility amid global oil shocks and sustained foreign selling pressure, said Ajit Mishra, Senior VP of Research at Religare Broking.

Sachin Bajaj, Chief Investment Officer at Axis Max Life Insurance, also said that the initiatives are expected to support capital inflows, deepen domestic bond markets, and provide support to the Indian rupee over the short to medium term.

RBI’s hawkish tone and the Indian stock market

While the measures taken to attract FII inflows in the debt market will likely provide short-term support for Dalal Street, analysts advised caution over the RBI’s hawkish policy stance. While the RBI maintained its policy repo rate as per expectations, the tone was much more cautious than in previous meetings.

Sachin Bajaj highlighted that the policy emphasised preserving macroeconomic stability amid the prevailing global macroeconomic environment. “We believe there are significant risks to inflation in the coming months due to the pass-through of higher commodity prices to consumers and elevated food prices resulting from a below-normal monsoon. Going forward, there is a risk of an upward revision in inflation projections, and given the evolving global backdrop, we believe the RBI is likely to maintain a prudent, data-dependent approach. Future policy actions will be contingent on evolving growth-inflation dynamics and global developments,” he added.

Also read: Explained: Sebi’s Rs 15.15 lakh crore revenue inflation allegations against Rajesh Exports

While hawkish rhetoric without an accompanying rate hike provides a temporary respite for equity markets, it does not constitute an unequivocal endorsement of investment, particularly in highly rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate, automotive, and consumer discretionary goods, said Vipul Bhowar, Senior Director, Head of Equities at Waterfield Advisors.

“Should inflation necessitate a rate increase later this year, these sectors are likely to experience pressure on both margins and demand. For investors, the current strategy emphasises capital preservation by focusing on high-quality equities with strong pricing power. This cautious approach is designed to navigate the prevailing geopolitical uncertainties until conditions stabilise,” the analyst added.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)