Over the past five years, the sector has clocked a healthy revenue CAGR of 16.5% and EBITDA CAGR of 26%, reflecting resilience and improving fundamentals.
In 1QFY26, revenue rose 16% YoY, driven by higher patient volumes and realizations per patient. Average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB) grew 9.5% YoY, with a two-year CAGR of 7.4%.
The sector is expanding capacity at an 8% CAGR, with 14,000 new beds expected between FY25–27, a 35% increase over FY25 levels. EBITDA margins remain stable at 23%, supported by scale, improved case mix, and strategic pricing. Despite pressures from new hospitals, EBITDA per bed grew 11% YoY in 1QFY26.
Growth is fueled by rising urban and semi-urban healthcare demand, greater adoption of private healthcare, specialized care penetration, and supportive government policies. Insurance expansion, payor mix improvements, and international patient inflows also enhance revenue quality.
Challenges include stable yet slightly lower occupancy rates (59%) due to new capacity and weaker international inflows amid geopolitical disruptions. Newly commissioned hospitals may weigh on near-term margins.Nevertheless, strong expansion plans position the sector for 20% YoY growth in operating beds in FY26. Combined with favorable demographics and healthcare awareness, double-digit revenue growth and healthy returns appear sustainable over the next four to five years.
Apollo Hospitals: Buy | Target Rs 9,010
Apollo Hospitals (APHS) reported strong 1QFY26 results, with EBITDA/PAT up 26%/42% YoY, beating estimates by 9%/13%. Growth was supported by reduced operating costs, better leverage at AHLL, and higher average revenue per patient (ARPP).Registrations (+21% YoY), active users (+55% YoY), daily medicine orders, and consultations rose significantly. Cost optimization at Healthco is expected to improve profitability. Apollo is also expanding hospitals, scaling diagnostics, optimizing its pharmacy business, and merging Keimed distribution. These initiatives should drive 15%/21%/28% CAGR in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY25–27.
Max Healthcare: Buy | Target Rs 1,450
Max Healthcare (MAXH) posted 1QFY26 revenue of Rs 24.5b (+27% YoY) and EBITDA of Rs 6.2b (+25% YoY), broadly in line. PAT at Rs 3.7b (+20% YoY) missed estimates due to higher depreciation and tax.
Growth was supported by a 26% rise in occupied bed days, stable ARPOB at Rs 78k (+1% YoY), and a higher institutional share (21.8%, +390bp YoY). Base hospitals delivered 13%/15% revenue/EBITDA growth, while Max Lab/Max@Home grew 19%/22%.
We project 21%/22%/26% CAGR in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY25–27, driven by brownfield expansions at Saket, Mohali, Lucknow, and Gurgaon. While Vikrant project delays and rising net debt (Rs 17.5b + Rs 4–5b by FY26) are near-term challenges, scaling capacity and diversification support sustained earnings growth.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
