Greenhaven Road Capital’s High-Expected-Value with Uncertain Timing Investment

Greenhaven Road Capital, an investment management company, released its second-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. In the second quarter, the fund returned approximately +14% net of fees and expenses, bringing the YTD returns to under +1%. YTD, the Russell 2000 has returned -1.8%. In addition, you can check the fund’s top 5 holdings to determine its best picks for 2025.

In its second-quarter 2025 investor letter, Greenhaven Road Capital highlighted stocks such as Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC). Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC) is a US-based independent oil and gas company. The one-month return of Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC) was -4.57%, and its shares gained 89.72% of their value over the last 52 weeks. On August 18, 2025, Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC) stock closed at $28.80 per share, with a market capitalization of $2.866 billion.

Greenhaven Road Capital stated the following regarding Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC) in its second quarter 2025 investor letter:

“One example of what I believe is a high expected value with uncertain timing investment is Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC), which I first wrote about in the Q3 2024 letter (link). I think there is a > 90% chance of a +150% outcome in the next year which implies an expected value of +135% (assuming a complete loss in the 10% scenario which I think is extremely conservative). Of course, there is a very wide range of potential outcomes including the loss of capital.

A drilling rig in action in the Western Canadian wilderness, showing the companies focus on exploration and production.

Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC) is not on our list of 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 29 hedge fund portfolios held Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC) at the end of the first quarter, which was 28 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC) as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you’re looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.