Gold pierces $3,600 mark as traders weigh Fed rate-cut bets

Gold prices rose to a record high on Monday, breaking through a key $3,600 level after soft U.S. jobs data cemented expectations of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve at its meeting next week.

Spot gold was up 0.7% at $3,612.20 per ounce, as of 0841 GMT. Bullion rose to a record high of $3,616.64 earlier in the session.

Bullion has surged 37% so far this year, building on a 27% gain in 2024, driven by a weaker dollar, strong central bank buying, a soft monetary policy backdrop, and geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery were unchanged at $3,653.10.

U.S. job growth weakened sharply in August, data showed on Friday, and the unemployment rate increased to a nearly four-year high of 4.3%, confirming that labor market conditions were softening and sealing the case for a Fed rate cut next week.

“(Rate cut bets) are boosting the demand of gold. Moreover, the overall geopolitical scenario is extremely uncertain … we should consider that a significant part of the demand is also coming from central bank buying,”,” said Carlo alberto De Casa, an external analyst at Swissquote. Traders have priced in a 90% chance of a 25-bp cut this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies. “We look for gold to rise to $3,700/oz by mid next year,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, meanwhile, were near their lowest in five months.

Focus now shifts to U.S. inflation report, due on Thursday, that could offer more clarity on the size of the Fed’s expected rate cut.

StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell added that the continued momentum for gold “was aided by CTA activity.”

Gold speculators raised net long positions by 20,740 contracts to 168,862 in the week ended September 2.

Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.3% to $41.08 per ounce. Platinum climbed 1.6% to $1,394.90, and palladium gained 1.3% to $1,124.24.