Global Market | Anurag Singh on what could decide the market’s next move

Global markets are navigating a volatile phase as rising oil prices and escalating tensions in West Asia threaten supply chains and corporate earnings. Investors are closely watching developments around energy flows and geopolitical strategy, particularly the security of the critical oil transit route through the Gulf.

In a discussion with ET Now, market expert Anurag Singh outlined what he believes could ultimately determine the trajectory of the conflict and its impact on financial markets.

Focus on Strategic ObjectivesSingh suggested that the core objective for the United States and Israel is to weaken Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities while ensuring global energy supply routes remain open.“The endgame is this — the US and Israel have to completely obliterate the capabilities of Iran. The nuclear arsenal has to be completely destroyed… and in the immediate term the Strait of Hormuz has to be open.”

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world, carrying roughly 20% of global oil supply.Earnings Concerns Already Priced InAccording to Singh, equity markets have already started factoring in the risk of weaker corporate earnings, particularly in consumer-linked sectors.“Consumer discretionary companies have already taken about a 20% correction in anticipation of earnings dropping.”However, he pointed out that emergency oil reserve releases could buy policymakers some time to stabilize supply.

“Releasing hundreds of millions of barrels of reserves has bought around 20 days. Within these two to three weeks, a solution could emerge.”

The Shipping and Insurance ChallengeEven if military protection is provided to oil tankers, the logistical and insurance hurdles remain a major concern for global trade.

“It is one thing to say ships will be protected, but somebody has to drive the first ship through the Strait. Who will be that brave one?” Singh believes the ultimate measure of success will be the long-term security of the shipping corridor. “Victory will be decided if the Strait of Hormuz can be taken away from Iran’s control for all times.”

Markets Facing Multiple HeadwindsBeyond geopolitics, Singh highlighted that equity markets are already dealing with several structural concerns.

“The median stock in the S&P is down about 17%, and in the Nasdaq around 27%, even though the indices show only a small correction.”

He pointed to three key worries for investors: artificial intelligence disruption in software companies, risks in private credit markets, and inflation pressures.

“There are three sets of worries that the market has to get out of before moving to new highs.”

A Crucial Two Weeks AheadDespite the turbulence, Singh said long-term market projections remain constructive if the situation stabilises.

“Projections for the year still point to about 12% earnings growth and the S&P potentially reaching 7,500 if things stay in place.”

For investors, the immediate outlook hinges on how quickly geopolitical tensions ease and whether oil supply routes stabilise.

“These two weeks are super critical. Something has to come out of it, otherwise it could become a long-drawn conflict.”