Fundamentals still favour equities despite geopolitical flux: Matt Orton

Even as global geopolitics undergo a visible shift, the underlying fundamentals supporting equity markets remain largely intact, according to Matt Orton, from Raymond James Investment Management. Speaking to ET Now, Orton said that while headlines may suggest heightened uncertainty, markets are continuing to behave much as they did before the latest geopolitical developments.

“And while the geopolitical landscape has certainly changed, I do not think the landscape for equities from a fundamental perspective have really moved all that much,” Orton said. He pointed out that equity futures remain firm, with technology and artificial intelligence themes continuing to attract investor interest. “You are continuing to see futures up, the AI trade, technologies continuing to work. You are seeing optimism around global growth despite the uncertainty that might be impounded or even elevated as a result of what we have just seen happen.”

According to Orton, the message to investors in such an environment is clear: focus on fundamentals rather than noise. “The main message that I would give to clients right now is one, follow the fundamentals,” he said, adding that companies positioned for growth, earnings expansion and margin improvement remain the most attractive opportunities. These opportunities, he noted, are not limited to the US but extend across global markets, including India.

Orton also highlighted defence as a consistent theme in his investment playbook over the past year, particularly amid rising geopolitical tensions. “Part of my playbook over the past year has been play with defence and defence companies should continue to win in this sort of heightened geopolitical tension environment going forward,” he said.

When asked about crude oil and its influence on markets this year, Orton suggested that subdued oil prices—despite geopolitical risks—could actually act as a positive catalyst for global growth. “Technology and AI can continue to be a driver of the market, but I am not sure it will be the absolute key driver to the degree that it has been in the past,” he said.

He explained that relatively contained or slightly weaker oil prices function like a global tax cut. “That is basically a tax cut on not only the US consumer, but consumers around the world,” Orton said, noting that this dynamic supports higher global growth and, in turn, stronger corporate earnings.In this backdrop, Orton believes investors should lean into cyclical sectors while maintaining selective exposure to technology. “What I am looking at is cyclicality in general,” he said, describing it as a complement to pro-growth portfolios. While maintaining positions in high-quality AI names with consistent earnings momentum, he sees value emerging across financials, industrials and defence-related segments.“Financials globally have been incredibly strong,” Orton said, adding that even in India, HDFC remains one of his top picks. He also expressed confidence in US regional and large-cap banks, particularly with increased merger and acquisition activity driven by stronger underlying growth. Beyond financials, Orton sees opportunity in aerospace, defence and oil services companies, which could be among the first beneficiaries of any geopolitical action involving energy-producing regions.

Summing up, Orton emphasised the importance of balance in portfolios. While remaining overweight on technology, he advised investors to layer in cyclical exposure where opportunities exist. “There is a lot of opportunities that are still out there,” he said, “but investors want to have more balanced approach while still being overweight tech.”