The Federal Reserve is all but certain to announce no change in interest rates after its two-day policy meeting ends today. What matters more is how many cuts policymakers indicate they expect to make this year.
For that, investors will turn to the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, to be released at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, for clues.
The quarterly SEP highlights Fed officials’ individual forecasts for inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. It also includes a chart known as the dot plot that shows where each Fed official expects interest rates to be in the months and years ahead. (Read our explainer on how the dot plot works here.) In March, the median forecast pointed to two cuts in 2025, implying a reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00% by year end.
