While the military pulled off a stunning feat by extracting dictator Nicolas Maduro without any loss of American lives and only taking minimal damage to aircraft, maintaining order in Venezuela is a different story.
When pressed on the potential role of U.S. forces going forward and whether there will be boots on the ground in Venezuela, Trump didn’t shy away from it.
“We’re not afraid of boots on the ground,” he told reporters at a briefing on Saturday. “We’re not afraid of it. We don’t mind saying it, and we’re gonna make sure that that country is run properly. We’re not doing this in vain.”
It remains to be seen whether the U.S. will seek full regime change as key figures in Maduro’s government remain in power, and Trump claimed Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is willing to so what Washington wants.
But the U.S. record after toppling oppressive leaders is mixed, retired Air Force Col. Cedric Leighton pointed out. Success in Germany and Japan after World War II contrasts with prolonged counterinsurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan in the last two decades.
“The risk with Venezuela is that it could be a hostile environment as well, and that could put U.S. forces in great danger,” he told CNN.
In that a scenario, the Venezuelan military has had plans for years that indicate it would engage in guerrilla warfare, Leighton added.
An insurgency could involve Venezuelan forces melting back into the hills or hiding in city slums while attacking U.S. troops.
“So these are the kinds of things that we definitely would have to be prepared for and could very well become a force protection nightmare if it’s not handled carefully and if the governance isn’t put in place to really in essence make for that to happen,” he warned.
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The remaining leaders of the Maduro regime were defiant. Rodriguez demanded his return, calling the U.S. raid “an atrocity that violates international law.”
Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello urged Venezuelans to “trust in the political leadership and military” and “get out on the streets” to defend the country.
“These rats attacked and they will regret what they did,” he said, referring to the U.S.
And Defense Minister Gen. Vladimir Padrino López said Venezuela will resist the presence of foreign troops, adding “They have attacked us but will not break us.”
Trump said Saturday that U.S. oil companies will rebuild Venezuela’s energy infrastructure and spend billions of dollars that will eventually be recouped with export revenue.
If there’s an insurgency, U.S. troops or security contractors would presumably be called on to protect company employees and assets.
That would likely require a much larger military presence than there is right now. Ahead of Maduro’s capture, the Pentagon said there were about 15,000 troops in the Caribbean last month. By comparison, hundreds of thousands of troops were in Iraq and Afghanistan during those wars.
For now, U.S. forces remain in the region at a high state of readiness, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine told reporters.
“The American armada remains poised in position, and the United States retains all military options until the United States’ demands have been fully met and fully satisfied,” Trump said. “All political and military figures in Venezuela should understand what happened to Maduro can happen to them.”
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