China’s factory-gate deflation eases in October, consumer prices rise

China’s producer price deflation eased in October and consumer prices returned to positive territory, data showed on Sunday, as the government steps up efforts to curb over-capacity and cut-throat competition among firms.

Despite the improvement in headline numbers, analysts warn that deflationary pressures on the world’s second-largest economy are not yet over, and the government may have to roll out additional policy measures to spur demand.

“Demand remains weak but a rebound in CPI indicates that supply-side policies are having an effect, and the supply-demand balance in many industries is improving,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “The future trend of inflation will depend on how much demand-side policies are strengthened.”

The producer price index fell 2.1% in October from a year earlier, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed, compared with an expected 2.2% decline in a Reuters poll of economists. The index has remained negative since October 2022 and dropped 2.3% in September.

NBS statistician Dong Lijuan said capacity management in key industries has narrowed year-on-year producer price declines. In coal mining and washing, the price drop narrowed by 1.2 percentage points and price falls in photovoltaic equipment, battery, and automobile manufacturing narrowed by 1.4, 1.3, and 0.7 percentage points, respectively. Consumer prices edged up 0.2% from a year earlier, reversing a two-month decline and beating the estimate for no change. Against the previous month, CPI rose 0.2% in October after rising 0.1% in September and compares with a forecast of no change.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile prices of food and fuel, was up 1.2% year-on-year in October, quickening from the 1% increase in September and hitting a 20-month high.

Food prices fell 2.9% year-on-year, after dropping 4.4% in September.

The October price figures indicate that government efforts to rein in excessive competition have helped stabilise prices, but lukewarm domestic demand and geopolitical tensions continue to cloud the business outlook.

“It is too early to conclude the deflation is over,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “We need to wait for a few more months of data to judge if the deflation dynamic has changed fundamentally.”

DEFLATIONARY PRESSURES LINGER

China’s economic growth slowed to its weakest in a year in the third quarter, and the youth unemployment rate remained elevated despite a dip in September.

Policymakers have refrained from aggressive stimulus this year, with the central bank keeping interest rates steady for five months, partly due to resilient exports following a trade truce with the United States.

China has recently unveiled some fiscal and quasi-fiscal policy support measures, but analysts remain divided on whether the central bank will implement further easing measures, such as interest rate cuts, by the end of the year.

Last month, China’s state planner said 500 billion yuan ($70 billion) in new policy-based financial instruments has been fully allocated, and China has allocated 200 billion yuan in special local government bonds to support investment in some provinces.

China’s economy is on track to meet the government’s target of around 5% growth this year, but producer deflation, as well as downbeat factory activity and an expected contraction in exports in October, indicate waning growth momentum.

A Reuters poll in October showed China’s consumer price inflation will stay flat this year, well below the government’s target of around a 2% increase.

Chinese leaders have signalled a sharper shift towards supporting consumption over the next five years, as limited room for investment and trade tensions have exposed vulnerabilities, although measures may take time to yield results.