SAMEET CHAVAN HEAD – RESEARCH (TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVES), ANGEL ONE
Where is Nifty headed? Nifty has managed to safeguard the psychological level of 25,000. The daily chart indicates a downward-sloping trendline around 25,850– 25,900 levels. We should wait for a convincing breakout to occur on a closing basis. This would trigger some positivity in our market to reclaim 26,200–26,400 levels in the near term. On the flip side, 200-SMA level of 25,300 is to be treated as key support, followed by the sacrosanct support at 25,000.
Trading Strategies: We are inclined slightly on the positive side and, looking at recent behaviour, we recommend a ‘Bull Call Spread’ strategy for the March 2 expiry, which is considered moderately bullish. One can buy 1 lot of ATM 25,600 CE at Rs 221 and sell 1 lot of OTM 26,000 CE at Rs 65 (levels of Friday’s close).
Here, the net outflow is Rs 156 (221–65), i.e. Rs 10,140, which is the maximum potential loss. The break-even point is 25,756 and the maximum profit is Rs 244 (26,400– 26,200–156), i.e. Rs 15,860.
STOCKS FOR THE WEEK Bajaj Finance CMP: Rs 1,030; Stop Loss: Rs 984; Target: Rs 1,089 The stock seems to have come out of its recent consolidation phase, with prices rising above the trendline breakout point. The weekly chart looks extremely promising. Dixon Technologies CMP: Rs 11,072; Stop Loss: Rs 10,400; Target: Rs 12,200
After a long phase of underperformance, we observe a ‘Morning Star’ pattern on the weekly chart. A move beyond Rs 11,900 would trigger a strong rally in the counter.
AgenciesDHARMESH SHAH VICE PRESIDENT & HEAD OF TECHNICALS, ICICI SECURITIES
Where is Nifty headed? Notably, over the past 13 sessions, Nifty has retraced only 50% of the sharp two-session rally seen in early February, reflecting a time-wise correction rather than a trend reversal. This healthy consolidation is a “launchpad” to challenge the all-time high of 26,350 next month. Strong support is placed around 25,200. Improving market breadth, with 45% of Nifty 500 stocks above their 50-day SMAs, indicates a revival that augurs well for a broader rally compared to early February.
Trading Strategies: The index is expected to stage a rebound from the key support of 25,200. Hence, any decline towards 25,200–25,280 (Nifty spot levels) should be used as a buying opportunity for a target of 25,700 this week. This buy-on-dips template remains valid as long as Nifty defends key support threshold of 24,980.
STOCKS FOR THE WEEK Bharat Electronics CMP: Rs 441; Stop Loss: Rs 398; Target Price: Rs 484
Stock has broken out of a contracting triangle and hit a fresh all-time high, with a higher-base formation near 20-week EMA indicating the broader structure remains intact. Over the past seven months, it has retraced only 38.2% of its preceding four month, 78% rally, reflecting a healthy consolidation; buy in the Rs 425–441 range.
Tata Steel CMP: Rs 208; Stop Loss: Rs 190; Target Price: Rs 228
Stock reflects a structurally strong and bullish setup, marked by a classic cup-andhandle breakout and consistent respect for 50-week EMA, forming a higher base near this dynamic support. This behaviour underscores sustained accumulation and strong buying interest on minor corrective dips; buy in the Rs 200–208 range.
DHUPESH DHAMEJA DERIVATIVES RESEARCH ANALYST, SAMCO SECURITIES
Where is Nifty headed? Nifty remains in a structural repair phase following the recent sharp breakdown, but the rebound lacks impulsive strength as price continues to trade below 10-, 20- and 50-EMAs, all of which have flattened near 25,650, forming a stiff resistance cluster and reflecting a clear loss of trend momentum. On the downside, 25,350 (gap support) and the critical confluence near 25,250 form a key demand pocket for the coming week. Holding above 25,250 may keep the index confined within a compression band, whereas a decisive breach could expose 24,900–24,800 swiftly. Momentum indicators remain neutral, with RSI hovering around the midline, signalling stabilisation but no bullish expansion above 60 to confirm renewed strength.
Trading Strategies: Adopt a sell-on-rise approach near 25,750–25,800 with a stop loss above 26,000, aiming for 25,400–25,350 on the downside. At the same time, options traders can deploy a Bear Call Spread (sell 25,350 CE and buy 25,650 CE of the March 2 expiry) to benefit from overhead resistance and limited risk exposure.
STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Navin Fluorine CMP: Rs 6,526; Stop Loss: Rs 6,190; Target Price: Rs 7,190
The stock is showing strong near-term price strength, with a clean rebound from Rs 6,200 breakout zone. It is now trading above rising 10- and 20-EMAs, with RSI near 60 indicating sustained momentum.
Colgate Palmolive (India) CMP: Rs 6,526; Stop Loss: Rs 6,190; Target : Rs 7,190
Stock appears to be in the early stages of a structural reversal after a prolonged downtrend. A breakout above Rs 2,180–2,190 consolidation suggests accumulation, with RSI indicating strengthening room for further upside.
