Contracts for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 index retreated 0.2%, after the underlying gauges were largely unchanged Wednesday. However, Bloomberg’s gauge for the Magnificent Seven fell 1.2%, extending declines for a second straight session. Treasuries steadied in early trading Thursday after yields fell across the curve.
The moves were more pronounced in the commodities market as gold and copper advanced on Fed rate-cut bets. Oil extended its drop after slumping by the most since June as a key market gauge flashed weakness and OPEC said global crude supplies surpassed demand sooner than anticipated.
Investor focus is on the yen after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a fresh warning on currency movements. The yen weakened to the key threshold of 155 per dollar on Wednesday, inching closer to levels where authorities last intervened in markets.
With US earnings season nearing completion, markets are shifting focus to the Fed and the outlook for potential interest-rate cuts. The absence of key indicators — such as unemployment figures and October’s consumer price index — has fueled uncertainty around monetary policy, with the White House confirming those reports are unlikely to be released due to the shutdown.
“While the markets are pricing the end of the government shutdown, there is an even bigger mountain ahead of us, and that is the resumption of all of the economic data that we have missed,” said Michael Landsberg at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management. “As the fog lifts, we will see if market positioning has been correct and it is still clear sailing or if there is a big repricing necessary.”The S&P 500 edged up 0.1%, lifted in part by a 9% surge in Advanced Micro Devices Inc. shares. The Nvidia Corp. rival in AI chips projected accelerating sales growth over the next five years, fueled by robust demand for its data center products. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.1%, paring an earlier decline of 0.6%.There is “probably some profit taking after strong gains on Monday and ahead of Nvidia earnings next week, especially since recent tech earnings have not been enough to satisfy the bulls,” said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “Also, there’s probably an element of ‘selling the news’ of the shutdown ending.”
Investors are also paying attention to the progress in ending the longest ever US government shutdown.
House Speaker Mike Johnson said he believes the legislation, a hard-fought compromise forged in the Senate and blessed by President Donald Trump, will pass quickly. But he’ll have to keep his fractious party in line in the face of stiff opposition from House Democrats whose leaders are urging them to vote against the legislation.
With the government shutdown delaying key economic data, the real challenge isn’t the short-term drag on growth — it’s the increasing difficulty for investors and the Fed to gauge the economic outlook, noted Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
“As data releases resume, the case for a Fed rate cut in December should re-emerge, reinforcing a risk-on backdrop,” she said. “This environment favors US equities, particularly big tech and cyclicals poised to benefit from a more accommodative Fed stance.”
Still, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she favored holding rates steady amid still-strong growth that could slow or stall progress on cooling inflation.
Treasuries rallied Wednesday, with the 10-year yield closing five basis points lower at 4.07%, fueled by expectations the Fed will cut interest rates in December. Bond traders were also piling into Treasury options, targeting a drop in the 10-year yield below 4% in coming weeks.
