From an economist’s point of view, conditions heading into the off-year elections probably didn’t seem so bad on paper. Inflation crept up but wasn’t spiking. Hiring was low but so was firing. Wages were still climbing, and the stock market was making investors feel wealthier.
But voters who showed up to the polls on Tuesday had a different point of view and delivered stinging defeats to Republicans.
“It’s a wake-up call,” polling expert Frank Luntz told MSNBC on Wednesday about the election results. “It’s a wake-up call to Democrats and Republicans. And it’s not the economy. It’s not even inflation because that’s something that’s used by professors and politicians. It is affordability.”
In particular, he pointed to housing and healthcare prices for the upper middle class, while workers who live paycheck to paycheck are focused on food and fuel prices.
In a separate interview with CNN on Wednesday, Luntz also downplayed inflation as an election issue and drew a distinction with affordability.
“The public is voting for candidates that they think will make life more affordable,” he said.
Indeed, democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani won the race to be mayor of New York City with promises to make housing, groceries and transportation more affordable.
Moderate Democrats won gubernatorial races with similar messages too. Virginia governor-elect Abigail Spanberger, for example, targeted rising electricity prices, which have stirred discontent as the state’s AI data center boom has spiked demand for power.
To be sure, inflation has cooled substantially since topping 9% in June 2022. But President Donald Trump’s tariffs have kept it sticky, with the consumer price index ticking back up to 3% in September.
And while overall inflation hasn’t jumped sharply and consistently comes in below Wall Street forecasts, consumers are noticing higher prices at the grocery store for basics like coffee.
“It explains why Trump was able to come back and do exceedingly well back in 2024, because the Democrats did not address affordability,” Luntz told CNN.
So it’s not enough to tout the annual rate of inflation. What matters more is how much prices for bread, milk, cars, homes and insurance are.
Democrats finally discovered that, after getting burned in 2024 and are making big promises to improve affordability, Luntz said.
“But make no mistake, how much you pay at the cash register is going to determine who you vote for in these elections,” he predicted.
For his part, Trump acknowledged affordability was a key issue in the election and ramped up his messaging on the topic while also reaching deals with drugmakers to lower prescription costs.
In addition, the White House has highlighted lower gas prices and prices for Thanksgiving staples at top retailers as well.
“I don’t want to hear about the affordability, because right now, we’re much less,” Trump told reporters Thursday, maintaining that his party is the one doing a better job. “The only problem is the Republicans don’t talk about it.”
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