Globes poll of polls: Eisenkot closes gap on Likud

Israel is going to elections, and “Globes” is following the campaign through the latest polls from the leading media outlets and examining who is strengthening, who is weakening and who is hovering around the four-seat threshold.

In all polls, Likud maintains its position as the largest party, and on average it wins 24 seats, unchanged in recent weeks. But the Yashar Party led by Gadi Eisenkot, having overtaken the Beyachad (Together) Party led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid last month is now closing the gap on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Yashar wins an average 22 seats, up one from last month, and Beyachad wins 15, down two from last month.

The Democrats (Yair Golan), wins 10 seats, unchanged from recent weeks while Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu wins 9 seats, also unchanged. Shas wins eight seats – down one from last month. Otzma Yehudit – Jewish Power (Itamar Ben-Gvir) and United Torah Judaism also both win 8 seats unchanged from last week, unchanged and up one respectively. The Joint List (Hadash, Ta’al and Balad) wins 6 seats (unchanged), Religious Zionism wins 5 seats, up one and Ra’am wins four seats, down one. Blue and White led by Benny Gantz and the Reservists led by Yoaz Hendel again do not pass the threshold.

What is the conclusion? In a bloc-based distribution, the coalition wins 53 seats, up one from last month and the opposition 67, down one. However, the opposition bloc also includes 10 seats from the Arab parties. This means that the non-Arab opposition parties only reach 57 seats, so they alone will still have difficulty forming a government.

Behind the numbers: In most polls, the opposition bloc wins 67 to 70 seats, with the Arab parties (the Joint List and Ra’am) receiving a combined 10 seats. The poll that again presents a significant difference from the rest is the Channel 14 poll – in which the Likud wins 33 seats. In the past month, In Channel 14 polls, the coalition parties have fared far better than in the other polls.

Average poll result

Likud – 24 seats

Yashar – 22

Beyachad – 15

Democrats – 10

Yisrael Beitenu – 9

Shas – 8

Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) – 8

United Torah Judaism – 8

Joint Arab list – 6

Religious Zionism – 5

Ra’am 4